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11.02.2026 12:32 AM
EUR/GBP:價格分析與前景預測——英國日益升高的政治不確定性給英鎊帶來壓力
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週二,EUR/GBP 匯率再度突破 50 日簡單移動平均線(SMA)。該貨幣對獲得來自歐元的溫和支撐,儘管在歐洲中央銀行最新訊號之下,單一貨幣的整體動能仍然相對平淡。

在歐元區內,歐元在缺乏明確推動因素的情況下面臨整理局面,這與歐洲中央銀行總裁 Christine Lagarde 的最新講話有關。她對通膨在中期內穩定回到 2% 目標區間表示有信心,這與她上週就貨幣政策發表的言論一致。這種論調強化了市場對利率將長時間維持不變的預期,從而限制了歐元進一步上行的空間。

不過,歐元也因歐洲中央銀行副總裁 Luis de Guindos 的表態而獲得一定支撐。他確認當前利率水平已屬適當,同時強調在評估未來政策步驟時必須維持中立立場。De Guindos 亦指出,近期歐元走強並不算劇烈,且通膨走勢與央行的預測相符。

與此同時,英鎊則因英國國內日益升溫的政治不確定性而承壓。首相 Keir Starmer 任命 Peter Mandelson 出任駐美大使後,因 Mandelson 備受爭議的過往履歷而引發外界批評,要求 Starmer 辭職的聲音愈加高漲。儘管面臨壓力,Starmer 已明確拒絕下台的可能性,並強調在多名高階內閣官員支持下,自己有決心繼續留任。

投資者態度謹慎,擔心領導層更迭可能削弱財政紀律,並導致政府借貸規模上升。英國市場目前的焦點集中在預定於週四公布的 GDP、工業生產與製造業數據,這些數據可能進一步影響英鎊走勢以及 EUR/GBP 貨幣對的未來軌跡。

從技術面來看,該貨幣對目前在 100 日 SMA 下方交易,並嘗試在 50 日 SMA 上方鞏固,日線圖上的震盪指標則顯示訊號分歧,整體結構仍偏向盤整。然而,隨著相對強弱指數(RSI)已轉入正區域,多頭力量有所增強並開始發揮影響力。若價格突破 100 日 SMA,多頭將有望取得市場主導權。下表顯示今日歐元對主要貨幣的百分比變動,其中,歐元相對於澳元的走強最為明顯。

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Irina Yanina,
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© 2007-2026
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