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11.02.2026 05:59 PM
GBP/JPY:分析與預測
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GBP/JPY 已連續三個交易日維持本週的跌勢,並在今日(週三)刷新 12 月低點。現貨價格已跌破 210.00 的整數關口,當日跌幅超過 0.50%,且仍保留進一步下跌的空間。

週日,日本由首相 Sanae Takaichi 領導的執政黨 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 在眾議院選舉中獲得壓倒性勝利,消除了國內政治不確定性,並為新的財政刺激方案鋪路。市場參與者目前預期,Takaichi 的擴張性政策將提振經濟,並使日本銀行得以維持其鷹派立場。這持續推升日圓走強,而日圓走堅正是本週以來 GBP/JPY 下跌的主要推動力。

相較之下,英鎊表現疲弱,原因在於外界對英國首相 Keir Starmer 領導力的質疑加深,而這些質疑又因其重要顧問 Morgan McSweeney 辭職而進一步升溫。蘇格蘭工黨領袖同樣呼籲 Starmer 下台,這在市場等待英國銀行就可能的貨幣政策寬鬆發出訊號之際,進一步加劇不確定性。此一走向與市場對日本銀行進一步收緊政策的預期形成對比,因而有利 GBP/JPY 匯價的空頭。

從技術面來看,自 2025 年 11 月以來首次跌破 50 日簡單移動平均線 (SMA),強化了短期看跌情境,並提高額外下跌的風險。市場對日本當局可能入市干預以支撐本國貨幣的顧慮,也在英國缺乏重要數據的背景下,限制了 GBP/JPY 的技術性反彈幅度。

在此情況下,匯價進一步跌破 210.00 的整數關口,並下探 208.00 水準的可能性相當高。

下表顯示日圓對主要貨幣的本週百分比變化,其中日圓相對美元的漲幅居前。

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Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2026
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