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12.02.2026 03:47 PM
英鎊無視關鍵統計數據

英鎊完全無視了關鍵數據,即國家經濟在第四季的成長低於預期。這主要是因為企業投資萎縮、服務業停滯不前,進一步加大了對首相 Keir Starmer 的壓力。

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根據國家統計局(Office for National Statistics)的數據,英國國內生產總值(GDP)增長了0.1%。此前第三季同樣錄得0.1%的增長,低於經濟學家0.2%的中位數預測。2024年12月,經濟也僅擴張了0.1%。

疲弱的GDP增長反映出英國在全球不確定性下維持經濟動能所面臨的困難。年底這段期間尤為具挑戰性。政府推出的加稅措施很可能壓抑了消費支出與投資活動。美國發起的貿易緊張局勢,為英國的出口商與進口商增添了額外障礙,進一步使國際貿易往來更為複雜。

在上一季,主要支撐力來自政府支出,該項目增加了0.4%。消費者支出依然疲弱,只成長0.2%,而企業投資則下降了2.7%,為2021年以來最大跌幅。報告同時指出,淨貿易對產出造成了負面影響,因為商品與服務貿易赤字進一步擴大。

ONS補充表示,雖然財相Rachel Reeves在11月26日公布的預算案避免了進一步、立即性的負面影響,但企業與消費者在12月依然保持謹慎態度。

儘管存在不利因素,2025年全年經濟仍成長了1.3%——相比之下,2024年為1.1%,且遠高於一年前經濟學家當時對2025年1.0%的預測。這些數據證實,英國是G7已開發經濟體中歐洲成員裡增長最快的國家。不過,成長並不均衡:上半年擴張較為強勁,下半年表現則相對疲弱。企業投資大致維持在先前水準,全年成長3.5%。

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如上所述,匯市對已公布的統計數據幾乎沒有作出反應。

就 GBP/USD 而言,英鎊買方需要拿下最近的阻力位 1.3660。只有在此情況下,他們才有機會進一步指向 1.3705,而要向上突破該水準將相當具有挑戰性。延伸目標位約在 1.3730。若該貨幣對回落,空頭將試圖在 1.3610 爭取主導權;一旦成功並跌破該區間,將對多頭部位造成嚴重打擊,並可能推動 GBP/USD 下探 1.3580,甚至進一步延伸至 1.3545。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2026
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