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13.02.2026 12:31 AM
USD/CHF:價格分析與預測。隨著瑞士公債殖利率上升,USD/CHF 匯率走低
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週四,USD/CHF 匯率維持在前一交易日的區間內,在賣方壓力之下走弱,原因在於瑞士法郎因避險資產需求上升以及本地公債殖利率走高而走強。

10 年期瑞士公債殖利率升至 0.32%,為去年 12 月以來最高水準,進一步提升了瑞士法郎作為全球投資人避險資產的吸引力。殖利率的上升刺激資本流入,推升瑞郎匯價,並進而壓抑 USD/CHF 貨幣對的漲幅。由於通膨率已接近目標水準,而重新啟用負利率的門檻仍然很高,預期瑞士央行 (Swiss National Bank, SNB) 在未來數月將維持利率在 0% 不變。

為了更好把握交易機會,市場應關注瑞士週五公布的 1 月消費者物價指數 (CPI) 數據;年增率預測將維持在 0.1%。Commerzbank 專家指出,由於近期油價上漲,整體通膨風險偏向上行,因為這可能很快反映在運輸成本上。他們評估認為,意外的通膨攀升,可能透過減輕進一步貨幣寬鬆壓力,反而改善瑞士央行的政策空間。

該行並指出,由於 1 月油價上漲約 10 美元,這種漲幅通常會很快影響瑞士的運輸價格,而運輸價格目前是對核心利率產生顯著負面影響的組成部分之一。

從美元角度來看,受強勁就業市場數據支撐,美元指數仍維持在高位。最新非農就業 (Non-Farm Payroll, NFP) 報告顯示,1 月新增就業人數為 130,000 人,高於預期的 70,000 人;失業率則由 4.4% 下降至 4.3%。這削弱了市場對聯準會近期降息的預期。

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CME FedWatch 工具顯示,目前有 94% 的交易員預期聯準會在下次會議上將維持利率不變(高於非農就業數據公布前的 80%),而市場對 3 至 4 月降息的預期大幅降溫,不過 6 月仍被視為啟動降息的可能時間點。

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下表顯示瑞士法郎當天相對主要貨幣的百分比變動。瑞士法郎兌日圓已升至當日最強水準。

從技術面來看,日線圖上的震盪指標呈現負面走勢,且價格位於所有移動平均線之下,顯示前景偏空。此外,所有移動平均線皆向下傾斜,反映買盤力量疲弱。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2026
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