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13.02.2026 08:37 AM
黃金在急跌後反彈

昨天,在黃金經歷一波突然的拋售後,買盤趁著價格走低積極進場,在美國關鍵通膨數據發布前逢低買入,推動金價部分收復跌幅。

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今天,黃金在週四大跌 3.2% 之後,已經反彈上漲約 1.5%。此次下跌伴隨華爾街市場的動盪,各類資產價格在市場擔憂 AI 對企業利潤的影響之下紛紛走低。保證金要求以及演算法交易很可能放大了黃金價格的跌幅。

目前黃金交易價格仍低於 5,000 美元大關,這一水準持續對交易員形成心理壓力。

然而,儘管近期價格走弱,黃金的長期前景依然偏向正面。地緣政治不確定性、通膨壓力,以及投資人對避險資產的追求,都預期將支撐對這種貴金屬的需求。此外,資產組合多元化的趨勢,以及對傳統金融資產信心的下滑,也同樣有利於黃金。

圍繞人工智慧的熱潮雖然引發短期波動,但不太可能動搖推動黃金價格上行的基本面因素。近期黃金與白銀的拋售潮——其中白銀在週四幾乎下跌了 11%——部分很可能也與獲利了結有關。本月稍早經歷歷史性暴跌後,貴金屬已收復部分跌幅,此後的交易表現出異常劇烈的波動。儘管價格起伏明顯,黃金本週很可能仍將在相對穩定的水準收盤。

今天,許多交易員正等待美國通膨數據的公布,該數據可能影響市場對聯準會未來政策動向的預期。通膨回落將有利於黃金走勢。本週公布的一月就業數據,已降低聯準會在年中再次降息的必要性。較低的利率有利於不產生利息收益的貴金屬市場。

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從目前黃金的技術走勢來看,買方需要突破近期阻力位 4,975 美元,這樣才有機會進一步上攻 5,051 美元。但在該價位上方,要再向上突破將會相當困難。較長期的上行目標仍位於約 5,137 美元一帶。若金價出現回落,空方將嘗試奪回 4,893 美元的主導權;一旦成功向下突破此區間,將對多頭部位造成重大打擊,並可能將金價壓低至 4,835 美元低點,甚至進一步下探至 4,771 美元。

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2026
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