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17.02.2026 06:37 PM
EUR/USD:分析與預測
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今天(週二),EUR/USD 貨幣對連續第二天承受賣壓,在約 1.1850 一帶、接近三條移動平均線匯聚區附近交投,並維持在 1.1800 這一心理關口之上。不過,整體基本面背景顯示,做空方在建立空頭部位前仍需謹慎。

反映美元兌一籃子貨幣表現的 U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) 持守前一交易日的溫和漲幅,目前交投於 97.00 水準之上,並持續對 EUR/USD 形成壓力。

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由於歐元區通膨放緩至自 2024 年 9 月以來的最低水準,市場對歐洲央行再次降息的預期升溫,導致單一貨幣走弱。與此同時,由於市場預期 Federal Reserve 也將進行貨幣寬鬆行動,美元的上行空間受到限制。上週五疲弱的美國消費者通膨數據公布後,市場參與者進一步提高了對 Federal Reserve 6 月降息的預期。這些預期再加上圍繞 Federal Reserve 獨立性的持續討論,可能削弱投資人對美元的看多情緒,並在一定程度上抑制 EUR/USD 出現急劇下跌。

市場內在的樂觀情緒也可能抑制對美元這類避險資產的需求。目前在等待 Federal Reserve 降息路徑進一步明朗之前,建議暫緩採取果斷行動,並將重點轉向週三公布的 FOMC 會議紀要。此外,美國第四季 GDP 初值、個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數以及全球各國的製造業與服務業 PMI 初值,將為本週後半段的市場定下基調。

從技術面來看,該貨幣對正嘗試突破約 1.1850 一帶三條移動平均線匯聚的區域。若成功突破,匯價有望進一步上探 1.1900 的心理關卡,其間在 1.1890 一帶存在初步阻力。若未能攻克當前阻力,匯價可能回落至 1.1800 水準,並在約 1.1810 一帶獲得初步支撐。日線圖震盪指標訊號分歧,且相對強弱指數(RSI)接近中性區,顯示多頭動能已大幅減弱。

下表反映本週美元相對主要貨幣的百分比變化。美元相對日圓的表現最為強勢。

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Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2026
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