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17.02.2026 06:40 PM
美元/加元:分析與預測
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美元/加元貨幣對持續自1.3500這一重要心理關口反彈,並升至逾一週以來的高位。匯價目前維持在1.3650水準下方不遠處,該貨幣對正試圖向上突破20日簡單移動平均線(20日SMA)。同時,多頭在即將公布的加拿大最新消費者通脹數據前表現謹慎。市場預期,加拿大核心消費者物價指數(CPI)在1月的年增率將超出加拿大央行的目標,達到2.4%。

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這些關鍵指標將大幅影響市場對央行貨幣政策的預期,而貨幣政策又將在塑造加元走向及推動 USD/CAD 匯率方面發揮決定性作用。儘管加拿大央行的說法偏中性,但油價上漲在很大程度上抵消了這一影響,並為加元提供支撐,因為加元被視為與大宗商品掛鉤的貨幣。

美元目前正在整理前一日的溫和漲幅,這為 USD/CAD 的上行動能提供支撐。不過,由於市場預期聯準會即將展開貨幣寬鬆,美元多頭的熱情受到抑制。上週五公布的美國消費者通膨數據疲弱之後,市場對聯準會在 6 月降息的預期有所升溫。當前的市場定價顯示,2026 年至少會有兩次、每次 25 個基點的聯準會降息。

這些前景,再加上對聯準會獨立性的擔憂,正限制美元漲勢的延伸。在週三公佈 FOMC 會議紀要之前,整體市場樂觀情緒同樣削弱了美元作為避險資產的吸引力。

此外,週五將公布的美國個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數,將進一步釐清聯準會的降息計畫並影響美元走勢,這也意味著 USD/CAD 多頭須保持謹慎。

從技術面來看,若該貨幣對能突破 20 日 SMA,可能為多頭帶來進一步上漲的機會。最近的阻力位在 1.3650,一旦突破,將為上行測試 1.3700 這一道心理關口打開空間。若匯價無法守在 9 日 EMA 之上,則可能回落至 1.3600 的心理關口,其後則關注 2 月低點。

由於日線圖中的震盪指標仍位於負值區間,買方要重新掌握主導權仍面臨不小難度。

下表顯示美元相對一籃子主要貨幣的百分比變化。今日美元的表現為

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Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2026
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