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17.02.2026 06:44 PM
美元/日圓:分析與前景展望
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美元兌日圓(USD/JPY)在153.75附近遇到阻力後承壓回落。由於市場擔心日本與美國可能進行聯合干預以穩定日圓,參與者維持高度謹慎。此外,兩國在貨幣政策,尤其是利率路徑上的分歧,持續限制該貨幣對進一步上行的空間。

日本週一公佈的第四季國內生產毛額(GDP)數據令人失望,恐將削弱支持日本央行(Bank of Japan)進一步收緊貨幣政策的理由,進而抑制多頭積極買進日圓的意願。同時,市場的風險偏好情緒,可能進一步削弱日圓作為避險貨幣的吸引力,從而在一定程度上對美元兌日圓提供支撐。

然而,美元兌日圓出現大幅上漲行情的可能性仍不高,因為外界預期聯準會(Federal Reserve)將啟動貨幣寬鬆,以及圍繞央行獨立性的相關討論,都在抑制大規模買入美元的行動。

為了尋找更具優勢的交易機會,投資者不妨等待FOMC會議紀要公佈,以便進一步釐清聯準會在利率路徑以及未來可能降息步調方面的下一步動向。

本週的經濟日曆還包括美國耐久財訂單與房市數據,以及全球初值PMI與多位具影響力的FOMC官員談話,這些因素都可能在本週下半周對美元兌日圓的走勢產生重要影響。整體而言,基本面環境顯示,現貨價格「阻力最小的路徑」仍偏向下行。

從技術面來看,唯有當匯價突破接近155.00的20日簡單移動平均線(SMA)後,多頭才有機會重新掌控局勢。目前,日線圖上的震盪指標仍處於負值區間;若匯價無法守住152.70支撐位,跌勢恐將加速,並向152.00這一重要心理關口靠攏。

下表顯示美元今日相對主要貨幣的百分比表現,其中美元對日圓的漲幅最為明顯。

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Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2026
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