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17.02.2026 06:51 PM
AUD/USD。分析與預測
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週二,AUD/USD 在 0.7040 一帶震盪,當日下跌 0.50%。由於澳洲央行(RBA)2 月會議紀要公布後,澳元失去支撐。文件指出,理事會成員認為,為了防止通膨在較長一段時間內維持在偏高水準,升息是合理的選項。他們同時得出結論,若未採取預防性措施,物價壓力很可能會在較長期間內維持在高檔。

不過,會議紀要並未勾勒未來利率變動的具體路徑,只強調央行決策將取決於後續公布的經濟數據。這種不確定性,正限制資金流入澳元,促使投資者權衡進一步貨幣緊縮的風險。

為尋找更佳的交易機會,市場參與者應關注澳洲即將於本週稍晚公布的就業數據。根據 BBH 分析師的看法,勞動市場狀況將成為利率預期的關鍵決定因素。BBH 市場策略主管 Elias Haddad 指出,在民間需求韌性強勁以及勞動市場吃緊的情況下,RBA 已恢復其緊縮週期,並釋出進一步升息的可能性。若就業創造強勁,將強化市場對今年進一步升息的預期,進而可能支撐澳元;相反地,較疲弱的數據則會對該貨幣帶來壓力。

在貨幣對的另一端,受美國假期後交投清淡影響,美元表現低迷。投資者正等待聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議紀要以及第四季度 GDP 初值。這些數據有望釐清聯準會未來貨幣政策立場,包括潛在降息時點與幅度。

從技術面來看,若該貨幣對無法維持在 14 日 EMA 之上,下方下一道支撐將位於 0.7000 心理關卡附近,而 20 日 SMA 亦位於其附近。一旦跌破此處,將削弱多頭動能。若匯價能升破 0.7075,則有望進一步上探 0.7100 心理關卡。由於日線圖震盪指標仍處於正向區域,目前多頭仍握有優勢。

下表顯示澳元當日相對主要貨幣的百分比變化。澳元兌英鎊的表現最為堅挺。

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Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2026
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