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18.02.2026 12:35 PM
EUR/USD。分析與預測
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歐元/美元在昨日自具心理意義的 1.1800 水準(為一個半星期低點)反彈後,未能延續正面動能,目前在狹幅區間內整理。市場參與者似乎在等待 FOMC 會議紀要的公布,以進一步釐清 Federal Reserve 的降息計畫,因此暫時按兵不動,避免積極建倉。

美國央行的貨幣政策路徑將對美元走勢產生決定性影響,並將主導歐元/美元的方向。同時,市場對 Federal Reserve 可能在 6 月降息,且在 2026 年至少再降息兩次的預期,仍在逐步削弱美元的支撐力。

此外,市場對 Federal Reserve 獨立性的憂慮,以及美伊談判出現進展的跡象,也限制了美元進一步上行的空間。伊朗外交部長 Abbas Araghchi 向媒體表示,已在解決長期核衝突的核心原則上達成共識。此類消息有助於緩解地緣政治緊張,提升投資人的風險偏好,並引發資金自避險資產流出,迫使美元多頭轉趨防守。

儘管如此,由於市場對 European Central Bank 降息預期升溫,加上歐元區經濟疲弱,歐元仍難以獲得主要買盤的有力支撐。特別是週二公布的德國 ZEW 調查顯示,機構投資人對該區最大經濟體的信心在 2 月降至 58.3,低於前一個月的 59.6。同時,歐元區整體經濟景氣指數亦意外自先前的 40.8 下滑至 2 月的 39.4。

從技術面來看,雖然相對強弱指數(RSI)仍位於正區間,但已接近中性且呈現走低,顯示多頭動能疲弱。若匯價無法守住具心理意義的 1.1800 水準,跌勢可能加速指向 2 月低點附近的 50 日 SMA。一旦多頭設法將匯價重新推升至 20 日 SMA 之上,後續目標將指向 1.1900 的心理關口與 2 月高點,而在此之前,約 1.1890 一帶將形成初步阻力。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2026
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