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11.03.2026 12:05 PM
GBP/USD:分析與預測
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今天週三,GBP/USD 貨幣對再次吸引買盤,在自三月低點反彈後、於前一日展開的回調行情暫告段落。本週初油價迅速攀升後又出現大幅下跌,已在一定程度上緩解了通膨壓力的疑慮。

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在此背景之下,股市指數表現強勁,對美元構成壓力,使其作為避險資產的地位有所削弱。這一因素成為英鎊兌美元匯率回升的主要推動力之一。

英鎊還獲得了來自市場對英國央行貨幣政策預期修正的額外支撐。此前,投資者原本預計今年可能會有三次降息,但目前市場已將今年底前升息的機率提高至接近 70%。預期的這一轉變強化了英鎊,並推動 GBP/USD 貨幣對走高。

然而,中東地緣政治緊張局勢,以及霍爾木茲海峽可能遭封鎖的風險,可能會提升對作為全球儲備貨幣的美元需求。這反過來可能抑制英鎊進一步走強,並限制該貨幣對上行的動能。

儘管美國總統 Donald Trump 近期表示衝突即將結束,但戰事的激烈程度並未出現明顯緩和跡象。以色列軍方宣布,將對伊朗境內目標發動新一輪空襲,並對黎巴嫩展開導彈打擊,目標為與伊朗支持的 Hezbollah 有關的基礎設施。這些事態發展可能削弱投資者的風險偏好,對美元形成一定支撐,部分抵消此前的拋售壓力。

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同時,市場參與者可能會傾向在新的美國通膨數據公布之前,或至少在英國央行官員 Breeden 發表演說之前,避免建立大型部位。不過,從基本面來看,GBP/USD 貨幣對的多頭前景仍然略偏有利。

從技術面來看,日線圖上的震盪指標依然處於負值區間,尚未轉為正向。此外,多頭仍未能有效突破 20 日 SMA,亦未能在 200 日 SMA 上方站穩。因此,賣方依然占有優勢。基於此,打算買入英鎊的交易者應謹慎行事。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2026
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