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13.03.2026 12:09 PM
XAU/USD。分析與預測
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黃金已回吐當日大部分溫和漲幅並轉而承受拋售壓力。由於市場持續買入美元,而這一買盤動能來自於一種認知:與 Iran 的戰爭所推升的能源價格,可能再度加速通膨,迫使 Federal Reserve 延後貨幣政策寬鬆。這是目前壓制貴金屬上漲的主要因素。

在中東緊張局勢升級之際,地緣政治風險依然偏高,這有望在黃金作為避險資產的角色下,限制其價格跌幅。Iran 新任最高領袖 Mojtaba Khamenei 在首次公開演說中要求,所有美國在該地區的軍事基地必須立即關閉,否則將面臨攻擊威脅。他強調,即便 Iran 希望維持睦鄰關係,對這些基地的打擊仍將持續。

與此同時,美國總統 Donald Trump 表示,瓦解 Iran 的「邪惡帝國」比油價更是他的首要任務。自美國與 Israel 對 Iran 展開軍事行動以來,油價持續上漲。霍爾木茲海峽可能遭封鎖的情況,正加劇市場對供應中斷的擔憂,強化對通膨再度飆升的預期,也迫使投資人下調對 Federal Reserve 在 2026 年降息幅度的預估。

這一局面推升了美國公債殖利率,對美元多頭有利,同時在美國個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數公布前,抑制了貴金屬價格的走升。

Federal Reserve 最重要的通膨指標,將在軍事衝突對消費者物價造成壓力的背景下,對貨幣政策預期產生重大影響,進而刺激對美元的需求,並提高 XAU/USD 匯價波動性。

市場關注焦點仍放在地緣政治發展上。不過,XAU/USD 仍面臨連續第二週收跌的風險。由於基本面訊號互相矛盾,在建立大規模單邊部位前,需保持謹慎。

從技術面來看,日線圖上的震盪指標依然偏空。然而值得注意的是,相對強弱指數(RSI)已接近超賣區,這意味著空頭在建立新倉位時應保持謹慎,因為價格可能出現反彈或盤整。即便如此,黃金目前阻力最小的方向仍然是向下。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2026
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