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13.03.2026 12:48 PM
GBP/USD:分析與預測
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GBP/USD 貨幣對已經連續第四個交易日走低。由於英國公布的大多數宏觀經濟數據偏弱,再加上美元走強,對英鎊的壓力不斷加大,推動現貨報價跌破 1.3300 水準。

根據英國國家統計局(Office for National Statistics)的資料,1 月經濟成長零變化,低於 0.2% 的預期,亦遜於 12 月 GDP 成長 0.1% 的表現。

同時,工業生產月減 0.1%,而製造業產出則小幅成長 0.1%。這種好壞參半的走勢進一步加重英鎊的壓力,並將 GBP/USD 貨幣對拉向 3 月低點。

與此同時,以 U.S. Dollar Index 反映的美元持續穩步走高,升至去年 11 月底以來的最高水準,並逼近 2025 年 10 月高位。美元受到市場預期支撐,即地緣政治緊張局勢引發的通膨升溫,將迫使聯準會(Federal Reserve)推遲啟動降息循環。

另一項支撐美元走強的因素是中東衝突升級,促使投資人轉向避險資產。這些因素疊加之下,加重了對 GBP/USD 貨幣對的壓力。

目前投資人關注的焦點轉向即將於北美交易時段後段公布的美國個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數。此外,美國經濟日曆上還將公布耐久財訂單、JOLTS 職位空缺報告,以及密西根大學(University of Michigan)公佈的消費者信心與通膨預期初值。

儘管如此,地緣政治風險仍是當前市場的主要驅動力,繼續主導美元走勢及 GBP/USD 貨幣對在週末前的表現。

從技術面來看,日線圖上的振盪指標仍處於負面區域。不過值得注意的是,相對強弱指數(RSI)已接近超賣區,這意味著空頭在建立新部位時應保持謹慎,因為匯價可能出現回調或盤整。然而,就目前而言,該貨幣對最可能的走勢路徑仍然是向下。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2026
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