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10.04.2026 01:20 PM
AUD/JPY 預測:荷莫茲海峽的地緣政治緊張局勢對日圓造成壓力
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AUD/JPY 貨幣對已進入多頭整理階段,對中國喜憂參半的通膨數據反應有限。目前該貨幣對在 113.00 心理關卡附近交投,這一水平為 3 月 18 日以來新高,後市仍有進一步上行的空間。

中國國家統計局公佈,3 月整體消費者物價指數(CPI)年增率為 0.9%,低於 2 月的 1.3%,也不及市場預期的 1.2%。按月來看,CPI 下滑 0.7%,差於分析師預估的 0.2% 降幅,並與前一個月 1% 的增幅形成鮮明對比。這些數據並未對市場造成明顯衝擊,對澳元以及 AUD/JPY 貨幣對的整體表現影響不大。

相較之下,日圓則顯得相對疲弱,主要受到市場憂慮日本經濟可能因荷姆茲海峽航運受阻而出現干擾的影響。伊朗再次封鎖這一具戰略意義的重要水道,以回應以色列對黎巴嫩加劇的空襲。此外,美國總統 Donald Trump 警告,若伊朗核協議破裂,不排除發動打擊,突顯局勢進一步升級的風險仍在。

在美國與伊朗持續為停火談判做準備之際,以上因素共同支撐了 AUD/JPY 的正面動能。整體局勢依舊緊張,地緣政治風險預料將在短期內持續為匯市帶來波動。

從技術面來看,各項震盪指標持續位於正值區間,且匯價穩站於關鍵移動均線之上,顯示匯率仍具延續漲勢的潛力。

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Irina Yanina,
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© 2007-2026
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