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02.05.2012 09:22 AM
USD/CAD Elliott Wave Count for May 2, 2012

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair started a trading day in sideways at the end of the 4 wave (coloured blue). During the Asian and European sessions we could observe low volatility (Asia and Europe had a bank holiday). Therefore in the early New York session the price tested the 0.9897 level. We can consider this move as the end of the 4 wave. The price did not manage to hold this level and the USD/CAD pair started pulling back towards the 0.9832 level. We can consider this move as the end of the 1 wave (coloured pink) of the bigger 5 wave. At the end of the New York session the price pushed back to the 100EMA resistance line. Today during the Asian session we observe low volatility and the price around 0.9850. We expect to see the price down in a 3 wave (coloured pink) of the bigger 5 wave. In accordance to our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (0.9896-0.9831-0.9864); the First Take Profit at 0.9809 (100% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 0.9769 (161.8% of wave 1). Stop Loss can be set at the invalidation point - 0.9897. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Factory Orders m/m, Crude Oil Inventories and FOMC Member Lacker Speech, that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9797 (S2) 0.9822 (S1) 0.9838 (PP) 0.9862 (R1) 0.9887 (R2) 0.9903 (R3) 0.9927

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 0.9835 with Stop Loss at 0.9897, Take Profit 1 at 0.9809 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9769 are recommended.

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
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