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04.05.2012 05:28 PM
Unemployment Rate - Fundamental Analysis for May 04, 2012

 

Every month the first Friday comes with high expectations generated by the data of U.S. jobs.

The consensus of economists polls of specialized agencies show over 160,000 new jobs created in April compared to March 120,000. This figure is to be revised, of course.

But just those 120,000 jobs created in March were the first in a row of negative data on the U.S. economy which could be observed throughout the month.

The measurement date is the nearest preceding ADP survey which takes into account the employment in private companies and is not encouraging as well: there were forecasts of over 180 thousand new jobs although only 119, 000 were registered.

The unemployment rate, the true barometer of the constantly changing work situation in the United States remains currently at 8.2%. This rate has been falling steadily and while it is still far from reasonable values the world's largest economy has also moved away from 10.2% in early 2009 and remained with a dramatic figure of 9.8% until December 2010.

In any case the question on who will conduct the currency amid the announcement is in focus of our attention.

As it was before there is a consensus of analysts who believe the euro will leave the area of 1.30 if not today, then at least in the next few days. It is necessary to consider this opportunity. The single currency appears to be strangely strong, although the debt crisis in southern Europe is growing every month, as the President of the ECB, Mario Draghi on Thursday was talking about the necessity of efforts to tackle the problem.

With respect to other leading currencies and excluding the Swiss franc, the euro has reached the 1.20 level; the pound sterling’s positions is not so clear, although there were some signs of exhaustion in its recent upwards movement resulting in significant drop against the dollar.
The yen in its turn remains very strong and is very likely to continue its growth in the nearest future, especially if the jobs data from the United States is not satisfactory to the markets and investors seek refuge in a safe asset.

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