Wave Analysis

After the decision about QE3 was taken yesterday, the EUR/USD pair climbed 130 points and fixed near 1.3000 level. Thus, its morning wave structure of the upward trend and its 5 wave demonstrated a more complex shape which enabled growth to 33 figure. At the same time, the rule of “selling according to the facts” may contribute to this scenario and initiate a correctional movement as the market has already taken into account the mentioned above FOMC decision.
Targets for Down Wave (probably 1 or a):
1.2876 – 423.6% Fibonacci
1.2758 – 323.6% Fibonacci
Targets for Wave 5 in 5:
1.2993 and higher – 523.6% Fibonacci
Summary and Trading Recommendations:
The most probable scenario is prolongation of the upward trend. Wave 5 of the rising channel continues its building and we expect growth to 1.2993 and higher in the terms of this wave which coincides with Fibonacci 523.6%. After wave 5 in 5 is finished, the pair may start a new downward channel with the primary targets at 1.2758 and 1.2685 which is equal to Fibonacci 323.6% and 261.8%. But this trend is strong enough and it is hard to say when the ascending move begins. MACD divergence is indicative of the beginning of the first down wave structure but taking into account such strong trend, we cannot predict the rebound.