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04.06.2013 01:39 PM
GBP/USD. Forecast for June 4, 2013

 

Manufacturing PMI in the UK in May was 51.3 vs. forecast for 50.1. The result is in positive territory (higher than 50.0) and it is for the first time in four consecutive months. When weak US data on ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending was published, investors thought that the Fed would not cut QE3 and started to buy currencies traded against the US dollar.
UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor grew 1.8% vs. estimates for 1.2%. Current Account in Australia in Q1 narrowed from -14.8 billion to -8.5 billion dollars.

At 11: GMT+4 UK house prices in May, according to Halifax is issued, forecast 0.2% vs. 1.1% in April.

At 12:00 GMT+4 UK PMI Construction in may is revealed, it is estimated 49.8 vs. 49.4 in April.

At 16:30 GMT+4 US Trade Balance in May is published, forecast -41.1 billion dollars vs. -38.8 billion dollars in March. However, in the current situation investors may ignore the data and the price will be in the channel for a day.

Technically, the channel may be defined by local highs and lows of May 13 and 20, 1.5280-1.5384. If the price breaks the lower level, it will open the way to the first target 1.5238, then the level of Fibonacci 23.6% on the H4, 1.5186.

 

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Laurie Bailey,
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