The European Central Bank managed to somewhat calm the markets, but this did not help crude prices much. Although oil has gained a bit, its move can hardly be called even a local rebound. The thing is that Christine Lagarde spoke exclusively about the banking sector during a press conference.
At the same time, the head of the ECB made no comments on trade and manufacturing activity. She noted that inflation remains too high, thereby making it clear that the risk of a recession persists. This in turn means that energy demand may also drop.
In addition, today’s macroeconomic calendar includes data on industrial output in the United States. Economists forecast factory production dipping further. In other words, investors are pessimistic about future demand, which determines the price of oil. Against this background, the likelihood of a continued decline in oil prices remains high.
Brent crude oil futures fell by more than 10% over the trading week. As a result, the price broke through a number of important price levels, thus hitting a new local low. At the moment, the asset is trading sideways, which can be attributed to its extremely oversold status. Nevertheless, a downtrend remains intact in the market. If the price returns below the 72 mark, the benchmark will extend losses and probably break through the support level of 70.
Gold, which was supposed to lose ground when the markets stabilized, remained relatively stable. This indicates that Christine Lagarde's assurances of the resilience of Europe's banking system have failed to hose down market fears. Obviously, the risks are still high, which makes gold still attractive, especially as a safe-haven asset. Since early March, the yellow metal has gained over 5%, which indicates a shift in investor sentiment. Moreover, if the economic situation gets worse, gold will most likely advance to $2,000 per ounce.
Meanwhile, the Russian currency rose above 76 rubles per dollar, reflecting market uncertainty over the outcome of today's meeting of the Bank of Russia. The vast majority of economists expect the regulator to leave the key interest rate unchanged. If these expectations are met, the dollar will first fall below 76 rubles and then move into the range of 74-75 rubles.
However, inflation is gradually cooling, albeit at a slow pace. The latest sanctions do not pose a serious threat to the economy. All this allows the regulator to ease monetary policy. So there is a slight chance that the central bank will lower the key rate. Nevertheless, market participants apparently prefer to price in the worst-case scenario. This is not surprising given the current economic turbulence.
That’s all for now. We wish you profitable deals. See you on our channel with a new video in a couple of hours!

00:00 Introduction
00:23 Lagarde on inflation
00:42 Oil Market Situation
01:05 Brent
01:39 Gold
02:23 USD/RUB
02:54 The likely actions of the Bank of Russia
03:27 Conclusion

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