On Thursday, the following strong calendar news comes out:
- 9. 45 BST, GBP, retail sales (m / m) (June), waiting for 0.4%, previous value was - 1.2%;
- 12. 45 London time, the deposit rate is expected to be -0.40%, the previous value was -0.40%;
- 12. 45 BST, EUR, decision on the interest rate (July), waiting for 24.0, the previous value was 27.6;
- 13. 30 BST, USD, the index of production activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (July), waiting for -3.241M, the previous value was -7.564M;
- 13. 30 London time, the ECB press conference.
Pair EUR / USD
Trend Analysis (Figure 1)
On Wednesday, the price moved down. On Thursday, most likely, there will be a continuation of the downward movement. Complex analysis will more accurately tell where the price will go.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily chart(Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator period 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved upward. In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.
MACD indicator (period 5/8/13).
The linear part of the MACD indicator.
Fast line (signal) is the white line.
The slow line (main line) is the blue line.
The result for the linear part of the MACD indicator is a downward trend.
Histogram of the MACD indicator.
Histogram - columns of black color.
The result of the histogram of the MACD indicator is a downward trend.
Overall result: The MACD indicator on the daily chart gives a downward trend.
Middle lines of the EMA.
On the daily chart, the following average lines are used.
1 middle line of the EMA - the color is white (first shadow).
5 middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow).
8 middle line of the EMA - the color is blue (the first shadow and trend).
13 middle line of the EMA - the color is yellow (trend).
21 middle line of the EMA - the color is brown (trend).
At the last run, the 8 middle line of the EMA (blue) moved up. Above the 13 middle line of the EMA (yellow) is the signal of the upper work.
The 21 middle line of the EMA is moving up. Below the 13 middle line of the EMA amplifies the signals of the upper work.
The bottom line: The EMA middle line system on the daily chart gives an upward trend.
The probability distribution of the indicators is as follows:
The average EMA lines are 24% up;
The MACD indicator (linear part) is 38% down;
The MACD indicator (histogram) is 38% down.
The result of the indicator analysis: The price will have a downward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- Indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - neutral;
- Volumes - upwards;
- Candle analysis - down;
- Trend analysis - neutral;
- Bollinger lines - neutral;
- Weekly chart - down.
General conclusion.
On Thursday, most likely, the pair EUR / USD will have a pullback.
Pair GBP / USD
Trend analysis (Figure 1).
On Wednesday, the price moved down, in the side channel. On Thursday, most likely, there will be a downward movement with the first goal: the recaptured Fibonacci level of 14.6% - 1.2956 (yellow dotted line). Complex analysis will more accurately tell where the price will go.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily chart (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved down. In this case, the trend should be determined from the indicators of the oscillator type.
Stochastic indicator (period 3/3/4) on the daily chart gives a downward trend (Fig. 2).
The system of RSI indicators (Fig. 2).
When working with the daily chart, the following periods are used in the RSI indicator system: 21 (brown), 8 (blue), 13 (yellow), 5 (red).
At the last day, there is a closed candle.
Calculation of the RSI indicator (5) by properties yields down.
Calculation of the RSI indicator (8) by properties yields down.
The bottom line: The RSI indicator system gives a downward trend.
The calculation of the CCI indicator on the properties gives down.
The bottom line: The CCI indicator system gives a downward trend.
The result of the indicator analysis: The price will have a downward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- Indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - down;
- Volumes - down;
- Candle analysis - down;
- Trend analysis - down;
- Bollinger lines - down;
- Weekly chart - up.
General conclusion.
On Thursday, the pair GBP / USD will be have a downward trend with the first goal: the recoil of the Fibonacci level of 14.6% - 1.2956 (yellow dotted line).
