EUR / USD, GBP / USD

Yesterday morning, the stock exchanges began with the discussion of President Trump's statement to shut down the government if the construction of the wall with Mexico does not resume. The euro did not miss the opportunity for growth. In the afternoon, relatively good PMI data in the eurozone came out. The production PMI in France and Germany in August showed growth. The services sector the index grew only in Germany, while in France it decreased. In the eurozone as a whole, manufacturing PMI increased from 56.6 to 57.4 against expectations of 56.3, as services PMI declined from 55.4 to 54.9. The index of consumer confidence in the eurozone retained the index reading of -2 points.

That same morning, the New Zealand Ministry of Finance published a forecast for the economy for 2017/1. A prospective estimate of GDP was 3.5% against the earlier estimated expectations of 3.7%. On this data, the New Zealand dollar declined 53 points, the biggest drop in August. In this situation, it underlines that the "New Zealander" shows increased sensitivity to any negative event, like the British pound. It seems that through external and speculative currencies large players are strengthening the dollar and this pressure will not sustain the euro. A circumstantial proof of this scenario today is while a report released by the New Zealand Statistical Administration which showed an increase in the trade balance for July from -3.65 million dollars to -3.21 million on an annualized basis and a monthly increase of 85 million against expectations of -200 million NZD, the " New Zealander "continued the decline.

U.S. economic data released yesterday came out weak, which also supported the euro. Sales of new homes in July amounted to 571, 000 against the expected 611, 000. A preliminary reading of the manufacturing PMI for the current month fell from 53.3 to 52.5, against expectations of growth to 53.4. But the services PMI was able to show growth: it came in at 56.9 against the earlier forecast of 55.0 and 54.7.

Today, a symposium opens in Jackson Hole. The fundamental speech by J. Yellen will be tomorrow ( 14:00 London Time). On the same day, M. Draghi will also speak (19:00 London Time). So far, it is expected that Yellen's speech will be optimistic and Draghi will not specify plans to tighten ECB's monetary policy and at the same time express concern regarding the rapid growth of the euro.

At 8:30 London Time, the 2nd estimate of the UK GDP for the 2nd quarter will published. The forecast assumes that the previous 0.3% is maintained. The balance of retail sales in the UK from the CBI for August is expected to decline from 22 to 15. In the US, home sales in the secondary real estate market for July are expected to increase from 5.52 million to 5.55 million.

The euro is expected at 1.1640, while the pound sterling is awaited in the range of 1.2735 / 55 and further at 1.2630.

AUD / USD

The Australian dollar is slowly declining for a third day under the pressure of the British pound and the New Zealand dollar. Investors paid all their attention on political risk in the US and ignored even the growth of commodity markets. Iron ore (spot with delivery to Dalian) went up by 0.5%, oil by 1.55%, copper by 0.43%. Coal fell slightly, by 0.1%. The "Aussie" these days fell by 42 points.

Yields on Australian government bonds are falling for the second day as a reaction to political risk in the US, while in the US today, yields are rising. The discrepancy in yields on government bonds creates a reserve for the medium-term weakening of the Australian dollar. It is recommended not overlook the political mood of the central bank to weaken the national currency, on the basis of which positive data on the US can begin to recover strongly, as it is now happening in New Zealand.

It is expected that the "Aussie" will decline to 0.7750 and 0.7710.