Burning Forecast 01/25/2017

EURUSD: The euro awaits the decision of the ECB on the highs.

Therefore, the main event of today and the week - and, perhaps, the month - is the decision of the ECB on its monetary policy. The market is waiting for the tightening of the ECB policy: the EU economy is clearly accelerating, shares are at highs, and the ECB continues the policy of injecting money in the market (though, the volume was halved in January - but still amounts to a massive 30 billion euros a month). This is despite the fact that such a measure - the injection of liquidity - is clearly unconventional from the point of view of the classical model of the Central Bank of developed countries - a measure clearly forced, anti-crisis. In addition, a negative (-0.4%) deposit rate for banks in the ECB.

The only question is when.

The decision of the ECB is at 11.45 London time, the press conference of the head of the ECB Mario Draghi will be at 12.30 London time.

On the market: the euro rose sharply out of a prolonged consolidation, without waiting for the ECB's decision. All our trading goals at the top have already been achieved.

As for technical objectives: the scale of H4 target at 1.2490 - on the scale of the weekly chart of 1.2530 - 1.2540.

Particularly aggressive traders who are itching to draw blood - cannot wait to start selling: sell from 1.2490 and stop 1.2535, if stop, sell from 1.2535, stop at 1.2570.

However, it is more competent to see a strong pullback, then sell from the "second call" to the top.

Sell only from 1.2160, but it is quite far.

In such a situation - after strong growth - the movement on the ECB can equally be strongly upwards - and vice versa, sharply downwards.

It's better to just watch.