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06.11.2012 10:12 AM
USD/JPY: Under Pressure

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Overview:
USD/JPY is consolidating in lower range as traders stay cautious ahead of today's U.S. presidential election. The USD/JPY pair is undermined by selling of yen crosses amid subdued risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 4.72% to 18.42, although S&P gained 0.22% overnight) as worries rise ahead of tomorrow's Greek vote on austerity measures which would determine whether Greece will get its next tranche of bailout money, while a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI to 54.2 in October (vs. 54.5 forecast) from 55.1 in September stoke concerns about U.S. economy. USD/JPY is also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields; Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY downside is limited by demand from Japan importers. Data focus: 05:00 GMT Japan September indexes of business conditions (preliminary).
Preference:
Sell below 80.35 with targets 79.85 and 79.65.
Support Levels:
S1 - 79.85
S2 - 79.65
S3 - 79.51 (Wednesday's low) 
Alternative scenario:
Buy above 80.35.The upside penetration of 80.35 will call for a rebound towards 80.55 and 80.8.
Resistance Levels:
R1 - 80.57(Monday's high)
R2 - 80.8
R3 - 81.00  

Technical Comment:
The pair remains under pressure as the RSI is badly directed. USD/JPY daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, 5- & 15-day moving averages are rising; but stochastics is turning bearish at overbought.

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
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