4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: -38.5563

Well, so far we can say that the first stages of the escalation of the trade war between the US and China have a beneficial effect on the US currency. So it was in the past, with the first turns of the trade conflict. We cannot say that the US currency has grown strongly in recent days, but still, the demand for it has increased, and the weak and unstable upward trend of the pair is broken. Yesterday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry made an official statement. According to him, China does not want a trade war with the States but is ready to fight to the end. Geng Shuang, Foreign Ministry spokesman, said that China is ready to defend its national interests and take the most radical measures. It is unlikely that such a statement by the Chinese side will please Trump. In the near future, we are waiting for a statement from the head of the United States, which is likely to contain new threats of imposing duties and taking other measures if China does not concede in the negotiations and does not sign the trade agreement immediately. Thus, we expect a further escalation of the conflict. Today, the EU is scheduled to publish GDP (preliminary value) for the first quarter of 2019, and in the States, there will be reports on retail sales and industrial production for April. If these reports do not disappoint, the pair may continue to build a new downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1169

S2 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1292

R3 – 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has overcome the moving. Thus, it is now recommended to consider short positions with the targets at 1.1169 and 1.1108, before the reversal of the indicator Heiken Ashi to the top.

It is recommended to consider trading on the pair increase not earlier than fixing the price above the moving average line and the level of 1.1230 with the first target at 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – blue line unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – purple line unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.