By the end of the last trading week, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a long-awaited volatility of 102 points in the form of impulsed candles, where as a result, we got a significant straight to the area of a strong pivot point. From the point of view of technical analysis, we observed the formation of the side channel, 1.2660 / 1.2750, where, as I mentioned earlier in previous reviews, there are signs of accumulation in the form of regrouping of trading forces. The result - the sideways fell, punching the lower border and going down to the area of the initial support point 1.2580 / 1.2558, where the quote felt the support point and moved to the correction stage earlier. Considering the graph in general terms, everything is not so bad. The clock frequency is stored "Impulse --- Correction", where there is now a clear premise of impulse, where traders carefully analyze the fulcrum (1.2580 / 1.2558) on the subject of the behavior of the quotes and possible breakdown.
Friday's information and news background had statistics from the United States, which, surprisingly, were not bad. Retail sales show an increase from 0.3% to 0.5%, but they expected even better results: 0.7%. The dollar was spurred by the statistics on industrial production, which recorded an increase from 0.9% to 2.0%. We turn to the information background, and what we have, a statement by the head of the British Foreign Ministry, Jeremy Hunt: "The EU says that if they are approached by the British Prime Minister, who will have ideas on how to solve the border issue in Northern Ireland, they will be ready to reconsider the package of agreements. " Let me remind you that the second round of elections will be held this week, and, according to preliminary forecasts, Boris Johnson is leading, and, as we already know, Boris is not so simple in terms of agreements with the EU.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we do not have any consistent statistics. Most likely, the background will wait for the election results, after which there will be jumps, if, of course, we do not receive information from the outside, which will respond to the general dollar background, but such information is available.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote comes close to the local minimum of 1.2558, where earlier the quote felt a foothold. We can probably assume a fluctuation in the range of 1.2558 / 1.2620, where traders carefully analyze the boundaries for clear fixations and market reaction.
Based on the available information, it is possible to expand a number of variations, let's consider them:
- Positions for purchase is considered in case of price fixing higher than 1.2630.
- We considered selling positions after the flat breakdown, in the area of 1.2650, now the fixing phase is actively underway. Further transactions will be considered in the case of a clear price fixing lower than 1.2558.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing the different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short, intraday and medium term have a downward interest against the general background of the decline.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(June 17 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 19 points, which is an extremely low value. It is likely to assume that there will still be acceleration, but in the case of a deceleration of 1.2558, we will be limited in oscillations.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 * 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.2500; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
