GBP/USD

On Wednesday, the pound once again brought confusion to the market - the trading range was 222 points, but in the end the day closed with an increase of 45 points. The market was feverish on reports of an almost ready deal on Brexit. Boris Johnson promised to send a letter to the EU with a request to postpone the Brexit date (as required by the law adopted by Parliament) if the current agreement is not signed until the 19th.

We are inclined to present the following scenario for further events with respect to the British currency: in fact, the UK's exit from the EU worsens its economic condition, no matter how "good" the deal is. And with any further developments, from a good deal to leaving the EU without a deal, the pound will decline, it is only a matter of the speed of this decline. In recent days, there is a typical growth of the instrument on expectations, and as a result, in fact, a fall will follow.

The price reached the Fibonacci level of 100.0%, that is, the low of the first branch of the movement from March 13 to April 25. Technically, this is an important level, a reversal may occur today. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is turning down.

A double divergence on Marlin is formed on the four-hour chart. The purpose of the decline is the Fibonacci level of 161.8% (1.2548), since it is to it that the MACD line on H4 tends. If the decline is not rapid, the first target will be the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at 1.2668.