EUR/USD

The euro's attempt to overcome the support of 1.1265 ended in failure yesterday - the euro was bought back due to slightly better data on the eurozone GDP for the first quarter - the index forecast was -3.8%, while the released estimate showed -3.6%. On an annualized basis, the indicator was revised from -3.2% y/y to -3.1% y/y. But investors could look a little further, namely today, since the Federal Reserve meeting will take place today, and there are very ambiguous expectations. In particular, investors are tormented by doubts about the control over the yield curve on government bonds.

Therefore, the ongoing easing of monetary policy (or the appearance that such easing could continue, which is likely to happen, since the Fed has been reducing the volume of purchases for a long time), could continue to fuel the euro. The immediate targets here are levels 1.1416 and 1.1495. Unambiguously interpreted tightening measures can return the euro to the level of 1.1265 and then the bearish targets will open before the price: 1.1200, 1.1125.

The price is consolidating at the target level of 1.1342 on the four-hour chart, which could not be overcome on the 5th. The second attempt may be successful. According to the main indicators, the situation is completely upward. Also note that yesterday's reversal came from the MACD line, which is another factor in favor of the euro. But the issue will still be resolved after the Fed announces its decision on monetary policy and sees the situation in the medium term, since the meeting will be extended, that is, with the publication of forecasts for the economy and rates.

The situation is neutral on the hourly timeframe, confirming the uncertainty of the moment.