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28.12.2021 10:54 PM
USD/CHF new leg higher?

The USD/CHF pair dropped but it's still trapped within a range pattern. It was located at 0.9175 level at the time of writing. In the short term, the pressure is still high as the Dollar Index seems undecided. DXY rebounded in the last hours, that's why USD/CHF recovered a little.

The HPI and the Richmond Manufacturing Index came in better than expected today helping the USD to recover. Tomorrow, the US Pending Home Sales is expected to report a 0.6% growth, the Prelim Wholesale Inventories may raise by 1.5%, while the Goods Trade Balance is likely to drop from -82.9B to -89.0B. USD needs strong support from the US economy to be able to dominate the currency market.

USD/CHF stands above 0.9157 support

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USD/CHF dropped after its failure to reach and retest the level of 0.9272 or to approach the upper median line (UML). DXY's downside movement after being rejected at the level of 96.64 forced the USD to depreciate.

Technically, the pair stands above the 0.9157 support. The range pattern between 0.9157 and 0.9272 levels remains intact. A bullish pattern here or a false breakdown with great separation may announce a new bullish momentum.

USD/CHF prediction

A valid breakdown below 0.9157 and escaping from the range pattern may signal a potential deeper drop. On the contrary, staying above 0.9157 and registering a false breakdown with great separation or a bullish engulfing may announce potential growth. Actually, I believe that coming back and stabilizing above the weekly pivot point (0.9197) may activate further growth.

Also, a further sideways movement towards the upper median line (UML) is favored if the pair stays above 0.9157.

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Ralph Shedler
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