empty
 
 

29.09.202010:10 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Pound and Brexit: a hindrance to the trade deal

Análisis a largo plazo

Exchange Rates 29.09.2020 analysis

There has been discussions recently about the importance of a mutually beneficial trade deal for both the British economy and the national currency. Experts say that the trade agreement between the UK and the EU is crucial for the pound's further dynamics. According to them, a trade deal that considers the interests of both parties will indicate the pound's direction in the short and medium term.

At the moment, analysts consider the pound to be oversold, which is caused by fears about a "hard" Brexit. Therefore, markets are concerned about the likelihood of the UK's unconditional withdrawal from the Eurobloc, since experts are sure that this can cause irreparable damage to the country's economy and national currency.

This week may be crucial for London and Brussels. The parties resumed negotiations, from which they expect clarity on the Brexit issue. The final decision on the trade deal will be known by the end of December 2020. However, by prior agreement of the parties, the deadline for concluding the transaction is set for the next month. This is necessary taking into account the time reserve and registration of the relevant papers in case of a positive decision.

The GBP began to grow rapidly, inspired by the likelihood of breaking the dead end on a deal. Yesterday, it rose by more than 1%, steadily gaining height. By midday, it was trading near $1.2904, after surging to another 1.3%. Against the European currency, it also rose by 1%, to 90.30. Analysts said that this is the maximum value for the last 20 days. This morning, the GBP/USD pair started at the level of 1.2847, and then broke through it. Now, it is trading near the range of 1.2855-1.2856, trying to repeat yesterday's records.

Experts believe that BoE maintaining the key rate at the current level is another factor why the pound rose. According to the regulator's statement, the lower limit of the key rate is now 0.1%. Earlier, a study by the Bank of England raised the issue of negative interest rates. Experts carefully analyzed the problem of the positive and negative impact of negative rates on the British economy and they concluded that negative rates have more advantages than disadvantages, which can help the country's economy in the long run.

On another note, the passion around Brexit threatens the relative stability of the British economy and the dynamics of the pound. However, the British authorities are doing its best to smoothen out the negotiations and in making further decisions. Last Friday, the United Kingdom said that the parties will have to work hard in the negotiation process over the trade deal. Earlier, the British authorities passed a bill "On the Internal Market", which alarmed the world community due to the possibility that the UK's 2019 withdrawal agreement will be canceled. It can be recalled that it guaranteed the protection of the borders between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Experts made it clear that this was a primary issue in last year's Brexit negotiations.

At present, the markets are tensely watching again the negotiations between the UK and the European Union, trying to predict the result. It should be noted the pound's fate and the country's economy depends on the final decision. Here, analysts and market participants expect a favorable outcome, in which there is room for compromise and a reasonable approach to the most important economic issues.

Larisa Kolesnikova,
Experto analítico de InstaForex
© 2007-2022
Benefíciese de las recomendaciones de los analistas ahora mismo
Recargue su cuenta de operaciones
Abra una cuenta de operaciones

¡Los informes analíticos de InstaForex lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaForex, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.




  • Opere de forma inteligente, gane un dispositivo
    Recargue su cuenta con al menos $500, regístrese en el concurso y tenga la oportunidad de ganar dispositivos móviles.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO
  • Ferrari de InstaForex
    Recargue su cuenta con al menos $1000
    únase al concurso y gane un Ferrari
    F8 Tributo
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO
  • Depósito al azar
    Deposite su cuenta con $3000 y gane $1000
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO
  • 100% de bonificación
    Su oportunidad única de obtener un bono del 100 % en su depósito
    OBTENER BONO
  • 55% de bonificación
    Solicite un bono del 55% en cada depósito
    OBTENER BONO
  • 30% de bonificación
    Reciba un bono del 30% cada vez que recargue su cuenta
    OBTENER BONO
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.