To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need to:
In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.3549 and recommended opening long positions from it if a certain scenario is implemented. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened in the first half of the day. It is visible how the bulls achieve a breakout of 1.3649, and then there is even a downward correction to this level to form a buy signal. However, the bulls failed to hold this area, after which the market fell lower, canceling all plans to enter long positions. The area of 1.3649 is blurred and now it is difficult to navigate it.
At the moment, trading is conducted around the level of 1.3649, and it is difficult to say where the movement will take place next. The focus will likely be placed on the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, as well as weekly data on the US labor market. Going beyond the forecast may put pressure on the dollar. The initial target of the bulls for the second half of the day remains a normal consolidation above the level of 1.3649, which will open a direct road to the area of the annual maximum of 1.3701. However, it will not be so easy to expect a breakdown of this range. Only the demolition of stop orders above 1.3701 will open a direct road to the highs of 1.3750 and 1.3803, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the bulls do not manage to properly take control of 1.3649 in the second half of the day, and trade moves under this level, it is best not to rush with purchases, but to wait for a downward correction to the support area of 1.3590, from where you can open long positions immediately on the rebound in the expectation of an upward correction of 30-40 points within the day.
To open short positions on GBPUSD, you need to:
Sellers are also not particularly active yet, as their benchmark of 1.3649 was completely blurred in the first half of the day, and it is difficult to say where the market will move further. The main task of the bears for the second half of the day will be to protect the resistance of 1.3701, but only the formation of a false breakout there will form a signal to open short positions with the aim of a downward correction to the area of intermediate support of 1.3649. A return to this level with a test of it from the bottom up forms a convenient entry point into short positions, which can push GBP/USD already to the area of the minimum of 1.3590, where I recommend fixing the profits. If there is a break of the resistance of 1.3701, then it is best to postpone short positions until the maximums are renewed in the area of 1.3750 or to sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the resistance of 1.3803, counting on a downward correction of 30-40 points within the day.
Let me remind you that COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for January 5 recorded a slight decrease in interest in the British pound, but this does not affect the overall picture. Long non-commercial positions decreased from 37,550 to 35,526. At the same time, short non-commercial positions remained practically unchanged and increased only from 31,518 to 31,861. As a result, the non-commercial net position, although it decreased, remained positive and amounted to 3,665 against 6,032 a week earlier. All this suggests that traders continue to bet on the strengthening of the pound even in the face of a new strain of COVID-19, for which there is no vaccine yet. The demand for the pound is limited by quarantine measures in the UK, which will be canceled sooner or later after the situation with infections has stabilized. Additional stimulus by the Bank of England, which will soon be discussed by economists, may also somewhat smooth the upward trend in the pound.
Signals of indicators:
Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market and some uncertainty with the direction.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
A break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3675 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound. A break of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3625 will increase the pressure on the pound.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.