26.01.202107:58 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 01/26/2021

Despite the completely empty macroeconomic calendar and the absence of any other news, the pound did not stand still and is significantly declining. In many ways, this is a reflection of the obvious overbought pound, and it clearly shows that the pound can be held at such high values only if there is positive news. Or negative, but already from the United States. The potential for its growth is very limited. In general, yesterday's decline, albeit gradual, and not so large-scale, as a consequence of the overbought British currency.

Exchange Rates 26.01.2021 analysis

Since the pound is declining even in the absence of any news, negative macroeconomic data should contribute to the continuation of this trend, if not more active weakening. Especially since we are talking about the labor market. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.9% to 5.1%, and employment will decrease by 160 thousand. The most important thing here is that in the United States and Europe, unemployment is gradually decreasing. So against their background, the situation in the UK labor market looks absolutely terrifying. Although the unemployment rate itself is lower. But the main thing here is not the numbers themselves, but the direction of their movement.

Unemployment Rate (UK):

Exchange Rates 26.01.2021 analysis

The GBP / USD currency pair, found resistance in the area of 1.3720 / 1.3750 after another convergence of the price with the local maximum of the medium-term trend, where, on a natural basis, there was a reduction in the volume of long positions ... As a result, there's a pullback in the opposite direction.

At the same time, the market dynamics was not so high, only 74 points, which is considered a low value for such an active currency pair.

If we proceed from the current location of the quote, then the sluggish movement will lead the market participants to the base area of last Friday 1.3635 / 1.3645, where there was a slight slowdown.

Looking at the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, it is clear that the quote is still at the conditional peak of the medium-term uptrend.

It can be assumed that if the price is kept lower than 1.3635, sellers will have a chance for a subsequent downward move in the direction of the values of 1.3600 - 1.3550.

An alternative scenario will be considered if the quote fails to hold below 1.3635, which will lead to a rebound and a slowdown in the range of 1.3635 / 1.3710.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, it can be seen that technical instruments on the minute-hour interval are giving signal for a sale, due to the price rebound from the local trend maximum.

Exchange Rates 26.01.2021 analysis

*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.

Dean Leo,
Experto Analítico
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