Today, we will analyze the major currency pair USD/CHF on the last day of weekly trading. I want to draw your attention again that the pair is quite exciting and sometimes undeservedly remains unnoticed. It is also worth recalling that this trading instrument was quite clearly correlated with the euro/dollar even in the recent past. In other words, if the euro/dollar was growing, then the USD/CHF pair was declining, and vice versa. Now, the correlation has become less obvious, but it still exists.

Weekly

Market participants are haunted by the topic of tightening by the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) of its monetary policy. There are different opinions on this issue, and they have been mentioned more than once in other materials. I believe that these contradictory forecasts are the main reason for the unstable price dynamics of the US currency. One trading week, the US dollar shows a strengthening against all its main competitors. The other week, the opposite picture was observed. This trend is visible on the weekly chart of the dollar/franc pair. If the pair declined last week, then the current five-day trading quote will end with growth. Turning to the technical nuances, it is worth noting that for the fifth week in a row, the dollar/franc is trading within the weekly cloud of the Ichimoku indicator, which is a zone of uncertainty. At the same time, the pair flirts with the blue Kijun line, then falling below, then rising above this line.

I dare to assume that an accurate breakdown, which implies a consolidation above Kijun, will send the quote to the upper border of the cloud, passing near 0.9328. However, before this, the bulls will need to break through the strong resistance of sellers at 0.9273, after which they will break through the black 89 exponential moving average. The fulfillment of this condition will open the way for USD/CHF to another very strong resistance area of 0.9470-0.9500, where the horizontal resistance level, the orange 200 exponential moving average, and the iconic psychological and technical mark of 0.9500 passes. In turn, the dollar/franc bears will need to alternately break through the blue 50 simple moving average and the red Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator. If this can be done, the road will open to the lower border of the Ichimoku cloud, which passes in the area of the most important psychological and technical level of 0.9000. In my personal opinion, the tasks of both opposing sides are extremely difficult, and a strong driver will be needed to solve them. In the meantime, I would venture to assume that the pair will still linger within the daily cloud, which will leave traders with options for both buying and selling USD/CHF.

Daily

On the daily chart, the picture is very similar to what is observed on the weekly timeframe. The pair is also trading within the Ichimoku cloud but much closer to its upper border. However, the most likely exit from the cloud up complicates the presence of the red Tenkan line here. Given that there are many more indicators at the bottom that can support the price, I think the most appropriate way out of the daily Ichimoku indicator cloud is up. Then on a pullback to the price area of 0.9200-0.9188, purchases of the USD/CHF currency pair can be considered. For this period, I believe this trading idea to be the most relevant.