Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair did not realize its 65% chance to develop growth in the target range of 114.31/46. Instead of growth, the price collapsed, settling below the MACD indicator line and the daily scale price channel line. Now the price is waiting for a further decline to the lower embedded line of the price channel in the area of 110.76. The likelihood of such a decrease is the same 65%. A price drop below the Nov 30 low of 112.54 would raise this probability to 75%.
The price divergence with the Marlin Oscillator still persists on the 4-hour chart. Here lies the risk - underneath the convergence, there may be a banal growing channel, from which the price exit to the downside is statistically higher than an exit to the upside. Therefore, from a practical point of view, the strategy of waiting for a signal to open a sell position is more profitable, and the signal will be when the price breaks the level of 112.54.
For a potential price growth (114.31/46), it needs to settle above the price channel and MACD line of the daily scale, that is, above the level of 113.16. This will take at least a day. We are waiting for the development of events.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaForex lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaForex, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.