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07.02.2023 01:07 PM
Markets will be feverish in the week ahead of US inflation data

Global markets continue to move down, reflecting the growing concern that the Fed will lose its optimism on the easing of inflation due to the strong labor market data. However, not everyone has the same view as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Monday that she does not consider it highly likely that the national economy will go into recession. She stressed that the low unemployment rate, which is at a 53-year low, signals that the economy is strong enough to avoid recession. Of course, markets do not believe this as global economic problems persist, such as the huge government spending, which has caused pressure on inflation.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has a speech scheduled today, and there is a chance that he will address the situation in the labor market and its prospective impact on inflation. If he emphasizes the dependence of the bank's monetary policy on the state of the labor market, the correction that started last Friday in the financial markets will continue, at least until the release of the next inflation data in the US. But if he does not mention the topic, markets may recover today, while dollar will halt its rally.

The US consumer inflation data that is scheduled to be released next week is expected to show a decline from 6.5% to 6.2% y/y and an increase by 0.5% m/m.

Forecasts for today:

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GBP/USD

The pair is trading above the psychological level of 1.2000. Problems in the UK economy, accompanied by the weakening of dollar, could pull the pair down to 1.1900.

XAU/USD

Gold is consolidating below 1878.65. If market sentiment improves, the price will rise towards 1900.00.

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