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05.06.2023 11:19 AM
Bitcoin accumulation phase continues: what to expect in the near term?

The previous trading week became one of the most volatile in the past month. Bitcoin made a bullish breakout beyond the range of $26.6k–$27.5k, but later experienced a price retracement to familiar levels. The previous week ended with another attempt by the asset to break the upper boundary of the $26.6k–$27.5k range.

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The price increase occurred against the backdrop of synergy between Asian and American investors who were opening long positions. Despite consolidated efforts, Bitcoin failed to break through, resulting in a decline in the asset. BTC begins the new trading week with a retest of the lower boundary of the channel at $26.6k.

Fundamental background

The attempt to achieve a bullish breakthrough at the $27.5k level can also be attributed to positive macroeconomic statistics. It is reported that the unemployment rate in the United States reached 3.7% against expectations of 3.5%. This is an indirect consequence of the Federal Reserve's policy of raising key rates and withdrawing liquidity from the global economy.

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BBG reports that macro data have instilled optimism in investors regarding the Federal Reserve's policy. The majority on the CME expects a pause in key rate hikes in June, which could have a positive impact on liquidity. The resolution of the situation with the national debt can also instill confidence in the crypto and other markets.

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It is reported that an agreement to increase the debt ceiling is already awaiting the signature of the U.S. President. Once the agreement comes into effect, the U.S. Treasury will receive a stimulus of about $4 trillion. Considering that USDT market capitalization has reached an all-time high, June could become a month of bullish movement.

BTC investors continue to accumulate

A classic pause in active BTC trading is accompanied by massive accumulation, which is a bullish signal. Over the past three weeks, BTC daily trading volumes have not exceeded $20 billion, and the number of unique addresses fluctuates around 700k-800k. These figures are insufficient for significant price movements, and thus BTC remains within the $26.6k–$27.5k range.

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Meanwhile, almost all categories of investors are accumulating BTC volumes en masse, creating a strong foothold for further price increases. It is reported that BTC miners accumulated cryptocurrencies worth $540 million in the last week. Glassnode reports that "whales" continue to aggressively increase their Bitcoin holdings.

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It is important to note that cryptocurrency trading started on the Hong Kong Exchange last week, which can lead to even more rapid accumulation and increased liquidity. Taking into account on-chain metrics and fundamental factors, it can be concluded that BTC will resume its upward movement in the near future.

BTC/USD Analysis

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has retested the upper boundary of the $26.6k–$27.5k channel. Due to increased selling pressure and successful defense of the $27.5k level, the cryptocurrency's price started a sharp decline and reached the lower boundary of the channel at $26.6k. Bulls need to maintain the price within the current range to stabilize the situation.

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Technical metrics on the daily chart indicate a continuation of the downward price movement. The stochastic oscillator is still in a bearish crossover, and the RSI has broken below the 45 level. There is some activation of buyers; however, the current volume is insufficient to protect the level.

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On the 4-hour timeframe, the main technical metrics have started to turn upwards. However, bears still have the advantage, and there is a possibility of further decline towards the $26.4k–$26.5k zone. That area is where the second order block is located, which sellers need to surpass to reach $25.5k.

Conclusion

Bitcoin continues to consolidate within the range of $26.6k-$27.5k with active accumulation. If the current dynamics are maintained, there is a high probability of the resumption of an upward movement for Bitcoin. As for short-term targets, buyers need to hold the $26.5k level to achieve the potential bullish scenario.

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