EUR/USD

Traders are waiting for the ECB next meeting on June 5 to get a clear picture about the euro zone and its recovery. The economy of the euro zone grew only 0.2% that is well below the ECB's target at 2%. At the last meeting, Draghi clearly indicated that the ECB will take actions next time (June 5). The long-term deflation is the main concern for the euro zone recovery. This can impact the pair to drive towards 1.40/1.44 or 1.32 levels.

Long run forecast-

The pair has been in a down trend from 1.399 levels, making lower lows and lower highs for the last 4 consecutive weeks. On the down side, the pair has potential support at 1.36, below this, 1.356 is the strong support. The trend change activity will take place once it breaks below 1.3550 (weekly 50 SMA) levels. A break below 1.355 will lead to major crack to 1.3477, 1.34, 1.33 and 1.32 levels. The new bull run will start only above 1.40 for the immediate target at 1.44 levels.

Weekly basis- crucial resistance is at 1.367.

The pair broke the 200-day EMA and well managed to close above this. A day close below the 200EMA, it will correct up to 1.3550 (weekly support). The daily momentum oscillators are giving a hope of recovery from the current levels or at the dip at 1.355 levels.

On the up side, the pair has strong resistance at 1.3640, above this, it can fly up to 1.367, 1.3688, 1.372 and 1.3735 levels. On the down side, the pair has a support zone between 1.3620-1.36, a break below this, sell for targets 1.3566 and 1.355 levels.

Intraday-

The pair is facing strong resistance at 1.3641, above this, 1.3670 and 1.3688 can be possible targets. On the down side, if the pair breaks 1.36, sell for the target of 1.355. The hourly momentum oscillators are still showing the positive divergence. We can expect a safe relief rally only above 1.367 for 1.37, 1.373, 1.375 and 1.3789 levels.

Recommendations- cmp 1.3634.

Buy above 1.3642, strong momentum is only above 1.367.

Sell below 1.3595.