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23.05.2012 02:47 PM
USD/CAD Elliott Wave Count for May 23, 2012

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave
The USD/CAD pair was trading in an upward move yesterday. During the Asian session we could observe descending movement toward the 1.0150 support level (200EMA). We can consider this move as the end of C wave of the bigger 4 wave (coloured blue). During the European session price started pushing higher reaching a new daily high at the 1.0185 level. Therefore during the early New York session price pushed back a few times to 200EMA but bullish mood was stronger, and at the end of the session we could observe the USD/CAD pair at 1.0233. Today during the Asian session we could observe continuation of the bluish mood and price is currently testing the 1.0237 level. Presently we are in the 5 wave of the bigger 3 wave (coloured green) and I expect to see price higher today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (0.9800-1.0063-0.9953) with Take Profit at 1.0381 (161.8% of wave 1). The end of the 4 wave at 1.0150 can be used as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the CAD Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m and U.S. New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0193 (S2) 1.0197 (S1) 1.0200 (PP) 1.0203 (R1) 1.0207 (R2) 1.0210 (R3) 1.0213

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0245 with Stop Loss at 1.0150 and Take Profit at 1.0381 are recommended.

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
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