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07.02.2013 01:01 PM
GBP/USD. Forecast for February 7, 2013

Yesterday the pound was trading in the narrow price range waiting for relevant information which is published today.

At 13:30 GMT+4 UK Industrial Production is issued. It is expected to grow 0.9% against 0.3% in November. Manufacturing production is to rise 0.8% against 0.3% drop in November.

UK Trade balance in December is published today as well. Visible Trade Balance is expected to be -8.9 bln GBP against -9.164 bln GBP in November. Trade Balance Non EU is expected to be -4.2 bln GBP against -4.519 bln in November. Total Trade Balance is forecast 3.2 bln GBP against 3.4 bln GBP in November.

At 16:00 GMT+4 ECB Rate Announcement is expected.

At 19:00 GMT+4 The National Institute of Economic and Social research (NIESR), GDP estimates are released.

Today Mark Carney speaks in UKs Parliament. Probably he will be in unison with the BOE government’s policy.

From the technical point of view, nothing has changed in terms of the pound’s price. The price continues to slide under the line of Fibonacci channel and further downward movement is probable after the price consolidates under the level of correction 123.6% of Fibonacci on the H4 (1.5646). If the price consolidates lower that 1.5646, the downward movement may start with targets at 1.5620, 1.5577, and 1.5555 (support of the channel line of Fibonacci). But on the way to the bearish targets on H4, the support area of the trend line of the daily time frame is placed, 1.5605/18; passing them through, 1.5577 and 1.5555 open.

If the data is strong, short-term bullish movement to the level of 1.5695 on the H4 is possible.

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Yuriy Zaycev
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