EUR / USD

On Monday, macroeconomic data on the euro area and the US as a whole came out in equilibrium, but where the equilibrium, there is the market follows the trend. Also, the media reports internal contradictions in German politics - the leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the same Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer came out with an extreme position on the issue of migration, threatened to resign, which jeopardized the coalition with much difficulty. Later, the CSU signed a memorandum with Merkel's CDU party.

The final estimate of the Manufacturing PMI of the eurozone for June was 54.9 against the previous estimate of 55.0. The eurozone unemployment rate for April was revised downward from 8.5% to 8.4%, and the May estimate remained at this level.

American Manufacturing PMI by Markit in the final estimate for the last month was increased from 54.6 to 55.4. Manufacturing PMI according to the ISM version was 60.2 against 58.7 in May and a forecast of 58.2. Construction costs for May increased by 0.4% (0.5% forecast).

On the four-hour chart, the price failed to gain a foothold under the Krusenstern trend line (blue), but the oscillator's signal line Marlin moved to the drop zone (-0,0006).

Retail sales in the euro area for May are expected to grow by 0.1%, in the US the volume of factory orders for the same month is expected to grow by 0.1% against -0.8% in April. As a result, we expect the continuation of the current trend and wait for the price to support the trend line in the area of 1.1510.