Forex Analysis & Reviews: 11.04.2019 - Trading recommendations for...

11.04.2019 10:18 AM

Trading recommendations for the currency pair GBPUSD - placement of trading orders (April 11)

For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a low volatility of 78 points, as a result of having a slight increase in the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that there is a decrease in volatility for the third day in a row, where the quotation after the corrective movement from the level of 1.3000 began to form a certain side-line with the boundaries of 1.3030 / 1.3120. On the other hand, the information and news background had many important events, but because of the entire array, there was only one key event for Britain - the EU summit regarding Brexit. At this summit, the European Council agreed to a further extension of the Brexit term, that is, the long-awaited postponement was received. Now, for more details: the postponement is given until October 31 with a number of conditions, if Britain does not approve an agreement in parliament until May 22, then it will have to participate in the elections to the European Parliament. Of course, if, nevertheless, England manages to approve the existing agreement before May 22, the withdrawal will take place on June 1, without participating in the elections. How did the market respond to such an event? Honestly - no way. Why? Most likely, the sacred meaning lies in the fact that the new postponement has further confused the process of Britain's exit from the EU, and investors have trivially stopped thinking about what is happening.

At the same time, yesterday, data on inflation in the United States were published, where a significant increase was recorded from 1.5% to 1.9%. However, the news did not make up for the market due to the same confusion about Brexit. In simple terms - everything went into the background.

Today, understanding of everything that is happening will continue, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, where applications are expected to grow.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see an insignificant increase to the local maximum on April 9, which is 1.3120, where the quotation felt in front of itself a periodic resistance and then slowed down. It is likely to assume the preservation of turbulence within 1.3030 / 1.3120, where traders are analyzing a clear price fixation outside the boundaries for setting trade orders.

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

- Buy positions are considered in the case of price fixing higher than 1.3120.

- Positions for sale are considered in two versions: Firstly - work in the existing range of 1.3030 / 1.3120, where the entrance is predicted around the level of 1.3070 and the perspective of 1.3030. The second option is to wait for fixations lower than 1.3030, but the prospect is primary the level of 1.3000, with the premise that the level of 1.3000 might decline, where traders monitor fixations below it and produce refilling.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that there is a downward interest against the background of uncertainty in the short term. On the other hand, intraday perspective is still in the correction phase while he medium-term perspective maintains the initial downward interest.

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / yearly.

(April 11 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 30 points. From the point of view of logic, the prolonged stagnation in terms of volatility should be replaced by its increase. However, if the quote is trapped within 1.3030 / 1.3120, nothing will change.