The tension factor has grown on the market: Iran threatens to withdraw from the "nuclear agreement" as it is under pressure from the United States. Europe is trying to convince Iran to stay in the deal. The United States accuses Iran of attacking tankers in the Gulf of Oman, and presents evidence. The United States is increasing its military presence in the region.

Tension plays toward the dollar.

Oil prices, however, hold near long-term lows, around $50/bpd - this shows that the market assesses the chances of a US-Iran was as low.

But gold still holds high, $1,341.

EURUSD: We are waiting for the Fed's decision on Wednesday.

In the case of a clear statement by the Fed about a likely rate cut, one should expect the euro to start moving upward. The absence of a signal to lower the rate may lead to a breakthrough of the euro below 1.1105

Selling is possible at a break of 1.1199 downward.

Possible purchases upon a breakout of 1.1350