4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – up.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 103.2475

As we said last night, the second speech of Jerome Powell in Congress did not surprise market participants, as, in fact, the head of the Fed said the same thing as the day before the Financial Services Committee. However, experts and analysts considered in this rhetoric a confirmation of readiness to soften monetary policy at the next meeting of the Fed in July by 0.25%. Well, this has been talked about for a long time, and Donald Trump demands to reduce the rate from Powell for the second year in a row. In addition, trade wars, the danger of slowing global economic growth, uncertainty with Brexit, all these forces to start to stimulate the economy, or at least to support it. The question now is as follows: did the foreign exchange market put in the current rate a reduction in the key rate, given that the probability of this is, in the opinion of many expert agencies, 100%? If yes, then we will not see a particularly strong reaction of traders on July 31, and the euro currency will not rise in price. The second question: will the ECB reduce its key rate? If so, the euro may return to the downward channel and will not have any advantage over the US currency in the medium term. At the moment, the euro/dollar pair overcame the moving average, which changed the current trend to an upward one.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.1169

S3 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1292

R2 – 1.1353

R3 – 1.1414

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair is fixed above the moving average. Now, therefore, it is recommended to consider the purchase of the euro with the targets at 1.1292 and 1.1353 after the reversal of the indicator Heiken Ashi up.

It is recommended to buy the US dollar after the bears consolidate back below the moving average line, which will change the trend to a downward one, and the targets will be the levels of 1.1230 and 1.1169.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.