Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trade war drags the US and China into the abyss (high risks of continuing the fall of AUDUSD and NZDUSD pairs)
time 30.08.2019 09:19 AM
time Relevance up to, 30.08.2019 09:00 PM

The mood on world markets improved slightly again amid confirmation of reports that US-Chinese trade negotiations had indeed resumed. But is it really worth taking this news seriously?

Investors continue to show their high expectations and hopes regarding the achievement of a new trade agreement between Washington and Beijing and an end to the customs duties war. However, the issue of agreement remains open. Everything that happens around this topic does not really resemble any local trade contradictions, but Washington's real aspirations, using measures of economic influence - customs duties, claims against major Chinese companies like Huawei, as well as obvious political pressure manifested in the use of the rhetoric that China is the main geopolitical enemy of the United States, trying to restrain the growth of China's economic and geopolitical dominance.

Given just such a subtext of the trade war, and it just begs, it can be said that an agreement can only be achieved if either one of the parties openly wins this confrontation, or when they are so weakened by the struggle that they will be forced to go to broad compromises.

Such difficult prospects will not bring anything good to the financial markets, as they will plague investors with their uncertainty and high financial risks. For China, this threatens a fall in income from trade with America, and for the States, the risk of higher inflation, which, given the prospects for a falling economic growth, will replace the era of its stagnation with a steady period of high inflation. In this case, in the event of falling American incomes and high import tariffs, investment activity will slow down. The status of the dollar as a world reserve currency will gradually melt, and with it the attractiveness of the dollar.

But, despite such a pessimistic view, these are still distant prospects, if the confrontation between Washington and Beijing does not end at a peculiar red line, beyond which lies the abyss.

In the meantime, in our opinion, the parties believe that they still have gunpowder to fight each other. The tug of war will continue, which will be a good reason for high volatility in the markets, accompanied by sharp changes in moods from positive to negative and vice versa. In this situation, the US dollar will maintain approximately its current position, since its real decline against major currencies will be compensated, in turn, by weakening of their exchange rates by the national Central Bank. It seems to us that this situation will continue in the short term.

Forecast of the day:

The AUDUSD pair remains in a short-term downward trend amid the trade war between the United States and China. We expect its decline to continue to 0.6675.

The NZDUSD pair also remains hostage to the trade crisis between the United States and China. We believe that the pair will continue to decline to 0.6245.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Pati Gani,
ผู้เชี่ยวชาญด้านการวิเคราะห์ของ InstaForex
© 2007-2022

บทวิเคราะห์ของทาง InstaForex จะทำให้คุณทราบถึงแนวโน้มของตลาด! ในการที่เป็นลูกค้าของทาง InstaForex นั้นคุณจะได้รับการบริการเพื่อการซื้อขายอย่างเต็มประสิทธิภาพอย่างมากมาย

  • เทรดให้ดีแล้วคว้ารางวัล
    เติมเงินในบัญชีของคุณอย่างน้อย $500 สมัครเข้าร่วมการแข่งขัน และลุ้นรับรางวัลอุปกรณ์ติดต่อสื่อสารแบบพกพา
  • เฟอร์รารีจาก InstaForex
    เติมเงินในบัญชีของคุณอย่างน้อย $1,000
    F8 Tributo
  • Chancy Deposit
    ฝากเงินเข้าบัญชีของคุณด้วย $3,000 และรับรางวัล $1,000
  • โบนัส 100%
    โอกาสพิเศษของคุณในการรับโบนัส 100% จากเงินฝากของคุณ
  • โบนัส 55%
    สมัครรับโบนัส 55% สำหรับการฝากทุกครั้ง
  • โบนัส 30%
    รับโบนัส 30% ทุกครั้งที่คุณเติมเงินในบัญชีของคุณ

Recommended Stories

Gold keeps afloat

With the Federal Reserve hoping to slow the pace of rate hikes next month and into 2023, retail investors have become increasingly interested in gold. However, Wall Street analysts

Irina Yanina 12:51 2022-11-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD trading plan for North American session on November 28, 2022. Overview of morning trades. EUR seems exhausted

In my morning review, I mentioned the level of 1.0385 and recommended entering the market from there. Let's analyze the pair on the 5-minute chart. A rise to this level

Miroslaw Bawulski 11:41 2022-11-28 UTC+2

Bitcoin consolidated above the $16.1k key resistance level: what to expect in the new trading week

The new trading week on the crypto market started with minimal price movements and slight bearish dominance. In general, the classic post-weekend situation with low trading volumes and minimal volatility

Artem Petrenko 11:26 2022-11-28 UTC+2

NZDUSD Potential for Bullish Continuation | 28th November 2022

On the H4 chart, we have a bullish bias with the price moving above the Ichimoku cloud and has broken out of the ascending channel. If this bullish momentum continues

Dean Leo 11:14 2022-11-28 UTC+2

AUDUSD Potential for Bullish Continuation | 28th November 2022

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ADUSD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Expecting price to continue

Dean Leo 11:11 2022-11-28 UTC+2

Forex forecast 11/28/2022 EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, Oil, Gold, SP500 and Bitcoin from Sebastian Seliga

Let's take a look at the technical picture of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, Oil, Gold, SP500 and Bitcoin

Sebastian Seliga 11:10 2022-11-28 UTC+2

ETHUSD Potential For Bearish Continuation | 28th November 2022

Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market .If this bearish momentum

Dean Leo 11:09 2022-11-28 UTC+2

RBA governor sees better chance of economy's soft landing than peers

The Australian dollar fell after the RBA governor said Australia had a better chance of a soft landing of the economy than any other developed country. First of all, Philip

Jakub Novak 10:39 2022-11-28 UTC+2

Bitcoin: Bullish recovery still possible, with stronger crypto industry

Bitcoin remains under pressure, drawing a suspiciously bearish flag pattern. If this figure works out, the level near $14,000 will not hold the price. It is worth noting that

Ekaterina Kiseleva 10:39 2022-11-28 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 28, 2022

Crypto Industry News: "Metaverse" is one of the main contenders for the 2022 Oxford Word of the Year, the Oxford University Press (OUP) announced, in a sign that this particular

Sebastian Seliga 10:08 2022-11-28 UTC+2
ระบุคำถามไว้ได้ใน แชท.