The Pound/Dollar currency pair showed high volatility of 121 points by the end of the last trading week. As a result, the quote returned to the limits of the previously formed accumulation.
From a technical point of view, we can see that a recent surge has led the quotation to around 1.2580, which reflects the local peak of the correctional course on July 12th. Hence, the pound inflated on nothing and began to lose its position. In fact, it returned to the quotation of the framework in the recent accumulation at 1.2430/1.2500.
As discussed in the previous review, traders have already managed to earn on the initial price spike in the period of September 19-20, where partial and full fixation of transactions was made in the area of 1.2550-2580 with the stop-loss moving to breakeven. it was possible to go into profit even taking into account the fact that the quote eventually returned back.
Considering the trading chart in general terms (the daily period), we see that the oblong correction is steadily maintained in the market. Relatively speaking, the range of 1.2500 (1.2500/1.2550) plays a variable resistance, restraining the unjustified inflation of the pound.
Last Friday's news background did not have any intact statistics for Britain and the United States. Thereby, all the interaction of the quote went through the information background along with the emotional component of the market. So what was in the margins of the information flow? A meeting between the two chief negotiators of Brexit, represented by British Minister Stephen Barclay and the EU representative Michel Barnier. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss a document previously submitted by the British authorities concerning the terms of the exit, but as we can see from the results, the talks were fruitless. The two sides agreed to continue the talks, according to the statement of the European Commission. In principle, we already expected this outcome when we heard the news that London had provided Brussels with unofficial documents with ideas on Brexit as if they were behind. European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker, for his part, said on Sunday (September 22) that Britain's tough exit from the EU would create a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.
As we can see, the play on the words of the representatives of the European Union leads to the spontaneous growth of the British currency, while at the same time the pound returns to its starting points while touching the real problems of Britain. At the same time, while touching the real problems Britain pound, the pound returns to its starting points. Statements of the EU about readiness to consider any proposals for "backstop" ending on the word "consider", and it is unlikely to go further.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, preliminary data for the United States, particularly the index of business activity in the service sector, grew from 50.7 to 51.5, whereas the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector should remain unchanged. Actual statistics may support the US currency.
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote is trying to storm the lower border of savings of 1.2430/1.2500 that is already trying to break it. There are assumptions that reflect the EURUSD currency pair in this situation, where at the current moment there was a sharp drain of the euro against the background of bad PMI data in Europe. In turn, speculators monitor the behavior of quotes relative to the lower border of 1.2430 since there are prerequisites for the emergence of short positions.
It is likely that there are prerequisites for the descent to 1.2400-1.2350 amid recovery and clear price fixation lower than 1.2430. A counter judgment reflects the opposite picture, where the bearish interest is waning and the quotation continues to chatter again within 1.2430/1.2500.
Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:
-If the price fixes higher than 1.2500, buy positions are considered with the prospect of a move to 1.2575. In the case of descent, we are looking for points of support, possibly around 1.2350.
- Sell positions should be analyzed with respect to current points and quotation behavior. It is possible to enter the incomplete trading volume, subsequently topped up. Do not forget about the restrictive stop loss.
- Sell positions should be analyzed with respect to current points and quotation behavior. It is possible to enter the incomplete trading volume, subsequently top-up. Do not forget about the restrictive stop-loss.
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators' indicators in the short-term and intraday periods signal a downward interest due to the current recovery. The medium-term outlook holds upward interest due to an oblong correction.
Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(September 23 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)
The volatility of the current time is 68 points, which is already a lot for this time section. If the accumulation nevertheless falls and the quotation manages to go into the recovery phase, then the volatility can significantly increase, exceeding the average daily indicator.
Resistance zones: 1.2500 **; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) **.
Support areas: 1.2350 **; 1.2150 **; 1,2000 ***; 1.1700; 1.1475 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** The article is built on the principle of conducting a transaction with daily adjustment