Dear colleagues!
The Australian dollar is likely to finish the fourth consecutive week with a decline against its opponent, the US dollar. However, at the moment, the downward trend is not as intense as it was in the previous five-day trading, but there is still time before the trading closes and much can still change. The shape of the weekly candle will be very important.
Today, at 12:30 (Universal time), there will be a published data on lending to the Australian private sector on an annual and monthly basis. Both reports turned out to be weak and did not meet the expectations of market participants, amounting to 2.5% and 0.1%, respectively. Although it is worth recognizing that the dynamics of the Australian dollar, statistics on lending had virtually no effect.
Moreover, despite the weak performance, at the time of writing the review, the AUD / USD pair is strengthening.
Daily
Yesterday's candle, the lower shadow of which is larger than the body itself, gave every reason to believe that today the "Aussie" will grow, and so far this is exactly what is happening.
If the climb continues, its closest target will be the lower border of the Ishimoku indicator cloud, which passes at 0.6782. Farther targets at the top are represented by the Tenkan line at 0.6797 and 50 simple moving average at 0.6805.
Given that the weekly Tenkan is located at 0.6800, this mark, in my opinion, is extremely important for the pair. Because fixation above this significant level will indicate prospects for further growth, if this mission is impossible, most likely, the "Australian" will maintain a downward trend.
At the current moment, key support is indicated by yesterday's lows at 0.6758, and its breakdown will open the way to targets in the area of 0.6725-0.6710.
These are the prospects for AUD / USD on the daily chart. Now let's move on to smaller timeframes.
H4
On this chart, I stretched the grid of the Fibonacci instrument to a decline of 0.6914-0.6759. Judging by the technical picture and the likely course correction, it is logical to assume that the pair can roll back to levels 23.6 and 38.2 from this downward movement. Given the close proximity to these levels of 50 MA, 89 EMA and 200 EMA, sales after rising to the price zone 0.6788-0.6814 seem like an interesting trading idea. At the same time, do not forget about the importance of the level of 0.6800, which only adds the prospect of sales near this mark.
In the calculation of the correction of the purchase, you can try with current prices, with the removal of the stop below yesterday's lows of 0.6758 and targets near 0.6800. Further profit, in my opinion, is too early to expose.
H1
On the hourly chart, at the time of completion of the review, the pair bogged down between 50 MA and 89 EMA, which provide support and resistance, respectively. I believe that it is this factor that can decide the direction of today's trading on AUD / USD.
Leaving above 89 EMA will send the pair to 0.6788, where there are 200 exhibitors. A breakdown of 50 MA will make the next target of today's Asian session lows at 0.6763, the update of which will open the way to the support level of 0.6758.
I suppose that in the current situation the pair will choose the northern direction and rise to the area of 0.6785-0.6815, from where it is worth taking a closer look at the sales of the "Australian". This is currently the main trading idea for AUD / USD. Meanwhile, shopping in the current situation can be profitable, but, given the main downward trend, it will be risky. You decide.
Good luck!
