In the most global sense, the wave counting of the EUR / USD instrument has undergone certain changes recently, but at this time it looks quite convincing. The upward trend is expected to be nearing completion or has already been completed. Thus, wave 4 (or has already begun) should begin its formation in the near future. Or the first wave of a new downward trend section. A successful breakout of the low of wave 4 will confirm that the markets are ready for a downside. But until this moment, the construction of the upward trend section can resume at any moment.
The wave counting on a smaller scale shows that the supposed wave 3 or C may be completed. But until a successful breakout of the low of wave 4 at 5 at 3 or C, no definite conclusion can be drawn. The upward trend of land can take the form of a 5-wave, but then you need to have made a successful attempt to market high waves break 5 in 5 in the 3 or C. Thus, in any case, in order to understand where the instrument will move in the coming weeks, you need to understand which of these extremes will be passed.
On Friday, August 21, the European Union and the US released business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors. Without going into details in numbers, we can say that business activity in the European Union and European countries began to decline, which cast doubt on the further recovery of the European economy, while continued growth is observed in the US. However, these indices are not insanely important right now. America continues to prepare for the elections, and the American population and the whole world continue to follow the campaign promises of Trump and Biden.
It should be noted right away that Joe Biden rarely speaks to the public. Basically, all information comes from the current US president. And Trump continues to use China as his main trump card. The President of the United States continues to report almost daily that the PRC has been making a profit at the expense of America for decades and has behaved completely unfairly towards the United States. And after the coronavirus broke out from China, it was this country that became the cause of all America's failures in the last year.
Trump admits that the United States may stop doing any business with Beijing altogether, and the discussion of the second phase of the trade agreement has been postponed indefinitely. He also warns voters that if Biden wins the election, "America will come into the possession of China" stressing that China really wants Joe Biden to win. This is his main argument against the Democrat. Biden himself practically does not talk about China, although everyone implies that a democrat will be able to improve relations with China. Moreover, neither Chinese officials nor Biden has ever made any announcement regarding their possible future collaboration. So we only have Donald Trump's opinion and that's it.
General conclusions and recommendations:
The Euro-Dollar pair resumed building the assumed global wave 3 or C. Thus, at this time, I recommend new purchases of the instrument with targets located near the calculated level of 1.2089, which corresponds to 323.6% Fibonacci, for each upward signal of the MACD indicator. At the same time, wave 5 in 5 in 3 or C could have already ended. If the low of wave 4 is passed, then after the construction of corrective wave 2 or b, it will be possible to open sales for the instrument.
