Except for the not very important index of economic activity from the Federal Reserve of Chicago, yesterday did not contain any more macroeconomic statistics. It is quite natural that trading on the main currency pair was influenced by technical factors. We will move on to technical analysis for EUR/USD a little later, but for now, we will talk about today's macroeconomic events.
At the time of writing, the final data on German GDP for the second quarter were already published, which were stronger than forecasts. So, in quarterly terms, contrary to the forecast of minus 10.1%, the actual figure was minus 9.7%. In annual terms, German GDP, which forecasts were reduced to minus 11.7%, was at a value of minus 11.3%. Naturally, negative values for such an important economic indicator were the result of the COVID-19 pandemic, which struck not only the German economy. Today, at 09:00 (London time), indices of current conditions, business climate and expectations from the IFO will be published for Germany. If these reports also turn out to be better than economists' expectations, we can draw a cautious conclusion about the gradual recovery of the main European economy. Starting at 14:00 (London time), statistics on the housing market will begin to arrive from the US, however, the most significant and important indicator will be consumer confidence, which will be published at 15:00 (London time).
Daily
On the daily chart, quite predictably, attempts were made to break above the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator. This assumption was made the day before, and it was recommended to consider opening sales after the rise to the Tenkan line. However, as can be clearly seen on the chart, the euro bulls do not give up, and today, at the moment of writing, they move the quote up again. The technical zone of 1.1850-1.1860 has been repeatedly noted as very strong and important for market participants, so the fact that yesterday's highs were shown at 1.1850, and the Tenkan line today passes at 1.1860, is very symbolic. In order to return the pair to the upward direction, the minimum task will be to go up the Tenkan line and close trading above 1.1860. If this happens, the next targets will be 1.1882, 1.1915, and 1.1965. At the same time, only a true breakdown of the last mark will clearly indicate the further readiness and desire of the pair to move in the north direction.
H4
In this timeframe, the euro/dollar continues to trade in the ascending channel, and at the moment, there are attempts to return above the average channel line, which often acts as a fairly strong support or resistance. In the current situation, the average channel line is a resistance, however, its passage up may be false if the 50 simple moving average located at 1.1848 is not broken.
I consider purchases to be late at this stage of time, however, if candle signals for a decline begin to appear in the price zone of 1.1845-1.1855 on the 4-hour or hourly charts, it is worth looking at the pair's sales. Opening short positions at more favorable prices looks technically justified from the price range of 1.1880-1.1915, but before opening deals, it is also better to see the confirming signals of Japanese candlesticks.
