GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed another reversal in favor of the British currency, fixing above the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3375), fixing above the side corridor where they spent the week, and now have a good chance of continuing growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 200.0% (1.3499). However, you only need to look at the pair's movements over the past week to understand that it is very difficult to work with it at this time. Quotes constantly change the direction of movement, there is no trend. Moreover, there are still very big questions about what caused such a serious increase in the pound. Perhaps the same "speculative" factors as the growth of the euro currency? At least, there was no news on the negotiations between London and Brussels yesterday. Today is Wednesday, and the EU representatives, let me remind you, previously saw no reason to continue negotiations after Wednesday since in this case there is absolutely no time to ratify the agreement. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey didn't say anything interesting yesterday, and we've been familiar with Jerome Powell's position for a long time. By and large, all central bankers are now similar in their rhetoric. All of them believe that the economy needs more help, and this is especially true in the UK, where the Bank of England may lower rates in the near future, and the British economy is experiencing the greatest problems, and at the last meeting, the regulator was already forced to expand the asset purchase program. So, logically, the pound should have fallen yesterday.
GBP/USD – 4H.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a consolidation under the ascending corridor, as well as on the hourly chart. Nevertheless, the growth process continues in the direction of the corrective level of 0.0% (1.3481). A bearish divergence is brewing in the MACD indicator, which allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the direction of the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3191).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes continue to grow in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). However, when trading the pair, I recommend paying more attention to the lower charts. They are more informative.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed an increase to the second downward trend line. A rebound from it in the long term will mean a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a long fall in the British dollar's quotes.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Tuesday, the UK also released the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, which practically did not differ from the previous value.
The economic calendar for the US and the UK:
US - change in the number of employees from ADP (13:15 GMT).
US - Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (15:00 GMT).
On December 2, the UK calendar is completely empty, but in America there will be a second speech by Jerome Powell in Congress and a fairly important report will be released. However, traders are not particularly interested in the information background. And there may also be news on trade negotiations between the UK and the EU.
COT (Commitments of traders) report:
The latest COT report showed a sharp increase in the number of long contracts held by speculators. Thus, the mood for the reporting week in the category of "Non-commercial" traders became more "bullish". However, before that, it became more "bearish" for several weeks, and the British at the same time was not particularly much cheaper. Thus, I believe that one report can not radically change the mood of speculators. There were also 354 short contracts opened, which is very small. In general, I can say that the chances of growth for the British dollar have even increased slightly recently, but most other factors still suggest that this currency should start falling in the near future.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
At this time, I recommend that you be extremely careful when opening any trades on the British dollar. Firstly, it is extremely difficult to find signals now, and secondly, the pair continues to move very raggedly and often changes direction.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
