The wave structure of the upward trend still consists of five waves. Meanwhile, the trend, that has started to form after it, seems to be pretty clear. If the current wave structure is accurate, the quotes will probably fall to the targets set in the area of 1.1900 and 1.1800. However, the formation of the upward trend may well continue or a new trend may begin.
The wave structure in the shorter time frame also indicates that the upward trend is over. Thus, I still believe that the formation of the downward trend has already started. In fact, two of its waves have already been completed. However, Wave 3 cannot be identified until the price tries to break through the low of Wave 1. Most likely, only three waves of the downward trend will be formed. After that, the upward trend will resume. In fact, the wave structure of the upward trend will become even more complex.
The greenback is still slowly rising against the euro. Notably, the US dollar is flat against the pound sterling. Nevertheless, my review is about EUR/USD. This currency pair continues moving according to the current wave structure. One of many reasons for the greenback's rally is the growing epidemiological crisis and problems with vaccine distribution in the European Union. Thus, the EU authorities announced their decision to control exports of vaccines against COVID-19 from the euro area. That is, the European vaccine producers will be required to provide the countries within the Union with the vaccine first. Only then they will be able to sell it to others.
In fact, the European Union immediately came under fire of criticism from the countries that have already signed the contract for vaccine delivery with European pharmacological companies. Thus, the EU offered AstraZeneca to share the vaccine meant for the UK. London instantly condemned Brussels' actions. Overall, such a situation is beneficial for the greenback as demand for it usually rises when there is escalation of tensions in the world.
Director-General of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that "vaccine nationalism" would only slow the effort to quash the pandemic and called for vaccines to be used fairly and effectively. Nevertheless, there is nothing surprising in the fact that every country defends its own interest. Therefore, there is nothing wrong that the European Union is striving to provide its citizens with the vaccine first. On top of that, other countries, including emerging markets, are also displeased with how the vaccine is distributed. It turns out that the vaccine against COVID-19 is one of the most scarce products in the world.
Today, the eurozone released its manufacturing business activity report. The PMI rose by 0.1 point to 54.8. As we can see, markets are interested in coronavirus news more.
Overall conclusion and trading recommendations:
The upward trend on EUR/USD has supposedly come to an end. Thus, I recommend that one should sell the instrument with the targets set in the area of 1.2000 and 1.1900 with each new "down" signal from the MACD indicator and taking into account the formation of Wave 3. Also, I recommend that one should wait for a breakout at the low of the Wave 1 before entering short.
