GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a return to the level of 1.3820, a rebound from it and a reversal in favor of the British dollar with the resumption of the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3895). The upward trend corridor continues to characterize the current mood of traders as "bullish". The closing of the pair's rate under the corridor will work in favor of the US currency and the beginning of the fall of quotes in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.3744). Meanwhile, the governor of the British central bank said yesterday that the European Union should not enter into financial wars with the UK. According to him, the EU demands more from Britain and its companies than from its other partners. Since January 1, business London has been cut off from the European Union for obvious reasons, and the bloc is clearly in no hurry to grant these companies access to its market. However, such conditions were not spelled out in the last-minute trade deal between London and Brussels. However, Andrew Bailey understands that if British financial companies lose access to the European market forever, it will be a new blow to the UK economy. Thus, at a minimum, the UK will seek to reunite its financial sector with that of the EU. The European Union is considering the possibility of a conglomeration of the two sectors only in a very limited form and only on the terms of "equivalence". Probably, the European Union wants the same from the UK that Donald Trump wanted from China - approximately equal volumes of imports and exports to equalize the trade balance. Only in the case of the UK and the EU, we are talking about approximately the same balance of financial services.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the level of 1.3850. The rebound of quotes from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.3701). Closing the pair's rate above the level of 1.3850 will increase the probability of further growth towards the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.3977).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes made a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513), which still allows us to count on continued growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased.
Overview of fundamentals:
Jerome Powell and Andrew Bailey performed in the UK and the US on Wednesday. However, the traders did not pay enough attention to them. The information background was generally present, but it seemed weak for traders.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (13:30 GMT).
On February 11, the US will release a report on applications for unemployment benefits and nothing else. The information background will be extremely weak today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from February 2 for the British was much more "calm" than for the Europeans. During the reporting week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders opened 5.5 thousand long contracts and only 2 hundred fewer short-contracts. Thus, the mood of the major players, according to the COT report, has not changed. Speculators continue to maintain a very restrained "bullish" mood, which can not be said by the behavior of the Briton itself, which continues to remain very high and does not show any signs of having a desire to start falling.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
It was recommended to buy the British dollar at the close above the level of 1.3820 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3895. These trades can be held now, as the pair remains inside the trend corridor. It is recommended to sell the pound sterling when closing quotes on the hourly chart under the trend corridor with targets of 1.3744 and 1.3698.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
